SA election: ALP may have a chance to shine

SA Opposition Leader Peter Malinauskas. Picture: Keryn Stevens

Not since John Fahey won the Olympics for Sydney and NSW and then lost the election will a sitting premier feel so ­dudded as Steven Marshall in the event that he gets knocked off.

Just four years ago, Marshall ended 16 years of Labor rule in South Australia, the final years of which were marred by incompetence and scandal. In his managerial manner, Marshall quickly set about the business of economic recovery and reform.

He now finds himself in the same position as the Romans in Monty Python’s Life of Brian.

Apart from stabilising the ­energy supply, cutting power and water bills, reducing payroll and land tax, slashing the emergency services levy and seeing Adelaide voted the most liveable city in Australia, what’s Marshall ever done for us?

There is still a path to victory for the Liberals but it is a perilous one where a single misstep will send them off the cliff.

SA political history is littered with parties that have won the popular vote handsomely but ­failed to win key seats. Ask ­Marshall – it happened to him in 2014 when Jay Weatherill led Labor to an improbable victory. This is the way the Libs hold on – endure a savage swing but make sure it lands in Labor-held seats and avoids their four precious marginals.

But based on all the published polls, a Marshall victory on Saturday would be not so much improbable as one of the greatest comebacks in history.

The timing of this election has been his biggest enemy. Just six months ago, in the midst of a continuing pandemic, voters simply wanted to support incumbent governments out of a sense of self-preservation. They wanted them to succeed because they wanted them to be right in their pandemic management.

Since the SA borders opened on November 23 – a courageous and sensible decision by Marshall, as to refuse to do so would only have forestalled the inevitable – opinion has been divided about whether that decision was brave and wise or reckless and stupid.

Marshall’s natural business ­instinct towards delegating also came with a tactical flaw, ­especially in the eyes of business, as he nodded passively while health chief Nicola Spurrier and top cop Grant Stevens ran the state.

In addition, and most damagingly, the key weakness of the Liberal campaign has been its ­failure to counter the aggressive Labor and union-led campaign over ambulance ramping.

To return to the 1995 NSW election, where Bob Carr beat the man who had done nothing less than secure the 2000 Olympic Games for Sydney.

For Labor’s Peter Malinauskas, victory would present Labor with the same opportunity that the victories of Carr, Peter Beattie and Steve Bracks did in the late 90s.

Partnered with a parsimonious treasurer in Michael Egan, Carr saw his challenge as to show that Labor could govern prudently by paying down debt, checking spending and creating a pro-business environment.

He wanted his government to show that in the backdraft of Whitlamesque economic ineptitude, and the bank collapses of the early 90s on Labor’s watch in Victoria and SA, that the party could be trusted with public money again.

Should Malinauskas win, if he is true to his claim to be an Accord-style leader who wants to work in partnership with the private sector, Australia may finally have a sensible right-wing Labor government. After the mad isolationism of Mark McGowan, ongoing integrity scandals in Queensland, and Dan’s Fortress with its huge tax hikes, Belt and Road initiatives and PC edicts in the Victorian ­bureaucracy about the proper use of personal pronouns, a bit of no-nonsense, jobs-focused, 80s-style government would be helpful for the Labor brand.