SA election: Labor eyeing former Liberal strongholds

The South Australian election has the potential to mark the beginning of a shift towards the Labor Party in key areas of Adelaide.

SA Labor leader Peter Malinauskas. Picture: Tricia Watkinson

The South Australian election has the potential to mark the beginning of a shift towards the Labor Party in key areas of Adelaide that have either been long-term Liberal seats or more prosperous in recent years for the conservative side of politics.

The major parties will closely watch two safe Liberal seats on Saturday in the southern suburbs held by the Liberal Party with margins of close to double-digit figures.

A senior Labor source said that when the results of the 2019 federal election were overlaid with the state seats of Davenport (8.2 per cent) and Black (9.2 per cent), Labor came to believe it could be a strong chance to either significantly lower the margins or even win.

If it were to come, victory would most likely be in Davenport, according to multiple Labor sources.

There are four Liberal seats with a margin of 2 per cent or less, but the pendulum then jumps up to 6.2 per cent for the western beaches Liberal seat of Colton.

This explains why Labor is nervous that the Marshall government could hang on to power despite the surge in the published opinion polls.

There are 47 seats in the SA parliament and Labor has 20, making it possible there will be a hung parliament.

Private polling undertaken recently in the federal seat of Boothby, held by the Liberal Party with a margin of 1.4 per cent, suggested the seat could fall to Labor in 2022, which would be the first time this had happened in well over 50 years.

A loss in Boothby would make it self-evidently even harder for the Morrison government to retain power.

The state Liberal seat of King (0.6 per cent) is held by Paula Luethen and she is widely being seen as a potential saviour for the Marshall government due to her effective on-the-ground campaigning in Adelaide’s sprawling northeast.

Despite this potential on paper for Labor to fall short, both major parties accept that the momentum is with the opposition rather than the government and that Labor has out-campaigned the Liberal Party.

The Weekend Australian reported a week ago that Mr Marshall needed a miracle to hold on to power after a collapse of his ­primary vote when South Australia was reopened in November. Newspoll suggests that the government’s poor standing has continued.

A Labor strategist believes there is a potential for a similar effect in SA as has occurred in Victoria, where Labor-voting university-educated people have started to buy up housing in middle and outer suburbs. This, the strategist believes, is on the cards in Adelaide and could emerge as a significant stronghold for Labor in the future.

Labor has held government for most of the past 20 years.

The Liberal Party, meanwhile, is worried the organisation is heading into more internal strife if the government loses, with there likely to be more infighting between the so-called moderates and conservatives.

“We are just hoping for the best but it doesn’t look good at all. A win in any form would be brilliant,” a senior Liberal said.