Anthony Albanese expected to campaign in Dunkley amid Labor fears over Advance Australia influence

Anthony Albanese is expected to campaign in the Victorian seat of Dunkley over the weekend, a week out from a crucial by-election.

Anthony Albanese attends Jodie Belyea's Dunkley by-election campaign launch in Frankston. Picture: Jake Nowakowski

Anthony Albanese is expected to campaign in the Victorian seat of Dunkley over the weekend, a week out from a crucial by-election that is likely to have far-reaching consequences for both major parties.

The Prime Minister’s visit to the outer southeast Melbourne seat comes as one Labor operative told The Weekend Australian local campaigners were deeply concerned about the ­impact conservative lobby group Advance Australia could have on the poll.

The Australian revealed on Thursday that Advance is running an aggressive ground campaign in Dunkley, with a war chest of $250,000, urging voters to put Labor last and seeking to tap into anger over issues such as cost of living and border security.

Commenting on comparisons between Advance Australia and left-wing group Get Up!, the Labor operative said: “If only Get Up! had been as effective.”

The Labor campaigner expressed concern at what they viewed as complacency among senior party people comforted by the fact the government enters the race with a 6.27 per cent margin, and the belief Labor’s tax cuts for low- and middle-income earners will play well in Dunkley.

Former Victorian Labor strategist turned Redbridge pollster Kos Samaras downplayed the likely impact of Advance, saying its campaign was unlikely to appeal to people considering voting for Labor.

“The type of issues they’re campaigning on, if people are voting on those issues, they generally sit on the right flank of the Coalition,” Mr Samaras said.

“It’s unlikely they’re going to move from Labor to the Liberals on those issues.

“The work that we’ve done in Dunkley tells us that people are very disengaged, have no faith in the major parties, and … ­Advance Australia trying to convince the voters that the Liberal Party is better than Labor in an environment where they think they’re both crap is going to be pretty difficult to pull off.”

Kos Samaras is a former Labor Party strategist who now fronts influential lobbying firm Redbridge. Picture NCA NewsWire / Aaron Francis

Mr Samaras’s business partner, former senior Liberal staffer Tony Barry, said while the Liberals needed to add at least 10 points to their 2022 primary vote to win, Labor would want to keep its vote above 35 per cent.

“The problem for both major parties is that their votes are being cannibalised by minor parties and independents … fuelled by pervasive concerns over cost-of-living pressures and a perception in the electorate that both majors don’t have enduring policy solutions,” Mr Barry said.

“The risk for Labor is that ­Advance Australia taps into this grievance and atomises some of Labor’s primary vote. The emergence and rise and rise of single-issue litmus-test campaigning in the new political paradigm of grievance and tribalism is going to continue to lower the primary vote of both majors and reinforce existing trends.”

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton. Picture: David Crosling

Former Baptist minister and World Vision CEO Tim Costello lives in Dunkley and said he was “very worried” about Advance Australia’s influence. “I am really worried about the focus on divisive wedges and negative campaigning, of introducing that Trumpian psychic distemper into a by-election down here.”