Low- to middle-income earners hold Dunkley by-election key
A recent poll showed Labor losing ground among low- to middle-income earners, despite remaining on par with the Liberals among those on higher incomes.
Labor’s foreshadowed expansion of stage three tax cuts to low and middle income earners would directly target the group of voters the party must win back to succeed in the crucial Dunkley by-election.
Polling conducted in December by Redbridge shows the ALP has lost ground to the Liberals over the past six to 12 months among low to middle income earners, with higher income earners largely unmoved, as increasing living costs bite the party of government ahead of the March 2 vote in the southeastern Melbourne seat.
Statistics from the 2021 census show Dunkley has a very similar share of low-income households to the Australian average, with 16.7 per cent of households earning less than $650 a week, compared with 16.5 per cent nationally.
The seat – which is centred on Frankston but takes in Mount Eliza, Seaford, Carrum Downs, Skye, Sandhurst and Langwarrin – has a slightly lower proportion of higher income earners, with 22.1 per cent of households on more than $3000 a week, compared with 24.3 per cent nationally.
Redbridge pollster and former Labor strategist Kos Samaras said the polling and demographic data showed Labor could “create an almighty wedge” for the Liberals, who have “made significant gains within middle to lower income cohorts”.
“Our latest poll had the Libs’ primary vote at 36, compared to 31 for Labor, among those with household income of $1000 to $2000 a week,” Mr Samaras said.
Among those earning between $2000 and $2999, and $3000 or more, Labor’s primary vote stood at 36 and the Liberals’ at 35.
“If Labor ditched stage three (tax cuts) and did something drastic for those middle to low income households, they could create an almighty wedge for the Libs. That’s the only way they get back the voters who have drifted across to the Coalition,” Mr Samaras said.
John Crump, who has lived in the wealthy Mt Eliza area of the Dunkley electorate for 50 years, said he thought any flip-flopping by the government on stage three tax cuts would cost them votes in the area.
“Trouble was they agreed, when tax cuts were announced, to support them and now they’ve changed their mind,” Mr Crump said. “It’ll lose them some votes.”
Charities in Dunkley are at the coalface of cost-of-living pressures, and say they have been seeing a marked increase in the number of residents who have been forced to rely on their services to make ends meet.
The Local 2 Community food bank in Frankston North has reported an increase in demand of 78 per cent in the past two years.
Kerry Beard, 73, a food bank volunteer who is a Liberal Party member, said she thought the government was out of touch with the harsh realities people in the electorate faced every day.
“People live in a cocoon, they have no idea what’s happening out here,” Ms Beard said, adding that she has “never” seen so many people struggling to afford basic living costs.
“We’re getting workmen in here who can’t afford food. Their rent, gas, electricity and overheads are just killing them.”
Founder and owner Rebecca Olver agreed there had been an increase in “poor middle class” users of her food bank, who had jobs or did not come from a background of poverty but were forced to seek help because to the cost-of-living crisis.
“I sat with a woman last year and she owns a business, she was dressed reasonably well. (She was) a mess, because she thinks she is going to lose the business, fail to pay her mortgage, so she comes here for food,” Ms Olver said. And the trend is mirrored among other, larger organisations.
“On average, we tend to receive around six to seven calls for assistance a day and now it’s not unusual for us to get up to 10 calls a day,” Vinnies Frankston Conference president Geraldine Stanistree1t said. “In fact, over just the past two days we’ve had a week’s worth of calls coming through our call centre.”
Labor candidate, former TAFE teacher and charity founder Ms Belyea declined to comment ahead of an announcement expected on Wednesday from Anthony Albanese. Amid suggestions the government could wind back some of the stage three tax relief promised to middle to high income earners, Mr Conroy said the Prime Minister “should not break his promises”.
“Don’t forget he promised to cut power bills by $275 and bills have just gone up and up since then,” Mr Conroy said.
“He promised that families would be ‘better off’, but interest rates and rent rises are (at) the highest levels in over a decade, which is making life harder for the people of Dunkley.”
More Coverage
Labor powerbroker wins $350,000 compo from lobbyist
Labor-aligned lobbying firm Hawker Britton has paid $350,000 to one of its former senior executives to settle Federal Court action over his swift exit from the business.
Hypocrisy, bad taste and other follies of 2024
On New Year’s Day 2024, morale was relatively high since the Year of the Dragon was expected to usher in a time of rational thinking. Not quite how it worked out.