Albanese damned if he does (go big) and damned if he doesn’t

Labor is trapped between its progressive ambitions and the need for political pragmatism — and that’s not a vote winner.

Voters need reasons to vote for Labor, not just against the Coalition. Where is Labor’s vision? Where are the grand plans? Picture: NCA NewsWire / Gary Ramage

Labor is trapped between its progressive ambitions and the need for political pragmatism. It was once the party that dreamt big dreams, had things worth fighting for and was guided by a light on the hill. But now, haunted by the 2019 election, Labor is pursuing a policy-lite strategy.

Anthony Albanese insists he leads a party with bold ideas and rejects the charge of policy timidity. His deputy, Richard Marles, waxed lyrical about “nation-building” post-pandemic, inspired by post-war reconstruction, but has gone silent. And Treasury spokesman Jim Chalmers vows Labor will offer change, but only “safe change”.

Wayne Swan, Labor’s national president, makes no apology for the shift in Labor’s election strategy. He has argued within the party for a focus on values to craft a compelling political narrative rather than developing detailed policies. Accordingly, a small-­target approach has been adopted by Labor.

In an article for NSW Labor’s Voice magazine published last month, but not revealed before now, Swan articulated the plan that represents a decisive break with that adopted by Bill Shorten at the 2016 and 2019 elections. In short, Swan torched the Shorten approach.

“We learned in 2019 we can’t replace a compelling narrative with a laundry list of highly technical, complex and large policy reforms – however meritorious they are,” Swan writes. “We must find a way of communicating our vision via a short agenda of high-profile, easily campaignable policies. We must acknowledge that the agenda can only be as large as the voters’ trust in the leader and the party to deliver it.”

National President of the Australian Labor Party Wayne Swan. Picture: Liam Kidston.

Swan concedes the rise of a “populist right” has caused a “hollowing out” of support for Labor from “working class and lower income earners”. It has been difficult to counter “anger and insecurity” when it has been weaponised for political purposes and energised by social media.

He says the “reservoirs of voter trust” have been poisoned, which makes it difficult to win a mandate for sweeping change.

Labor, he argues, must focus on a values-driven narrative about secure jobs, economic growth and better living standards. It is the message that matters most. Too many policies, he argues, confuse the narrative and increase the risk of “disinformation campaigns”.

He calls it “pragmatic idealism”. It is a hard message to sell to Labor true believers.

The government is in the middle of a messy two-week parliamentary fortnight. It was only five months ago that the Nationals dumped their leader, Michael ­McCormack, for the scandal-prone, inarticulate and often incoherent Barnaby Joyce. The Liberals were held hostage by its rump junior partner over climate change policy.

Now, the Coalition is being held to ransom by senators Gerard Rennick and Alex Antic who refuse to support legislation until the government overrides state vaccine mandates. They joined three other renegade senators to vote for a One Nation bill to torpedo vaccine mandates. And Liberal MP Bridget Archer crossed the floor to support debating an anti-corruption commission bill.

Scott Morrison’s authority is being undermined by his own side as his integrity is under attack from Labor. Albanese views character as a prime ministerial vulnerability. Morrison often seems a little too tricky, evasive and sometimes untruthful. The Hawaii holiday remains a self-­inflicted festering sore and the confrontation with French President Emmanuel Macron returns again and again like reflux.

Despite the assault on Morrison’s character, he maintains a leadership edge over Albanese. Morrison is still more popular than Albanese and is preferred prime minister.

The Resolve poll this week showed Labor’s primary vote to be a dismal 32 per cent. Just 31 per cent of voters think Albanese is doing a good job. The upshot is that voters are not transferring from the Coalition to Labor.

The polls show voters favour the Coalition over Labor when it comes to defence and foreign policy. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Gary Ramage

There is no shortage of reasons to vote against the government. Its pandemic response has been judged favourably overall. But there also have been plenty of policy blunders, delays and backflips, and political scandals. However, when Newspoll asked voters which leader had “a vision” for Australia, 57 per cent said Morrison and 53 per cent said Albanese. This should concern Labor.

There are two key policy areas where the government has a further advantage over the opposition: economic and national security policy. The polls show voters favour the Coalition over Labor when it comes to defence and foreign policy, just as they do when asked who is most trusted to manage the post-pandemic economic recovery.

It just so happens that these ­issues – economic and national security policy – are traditionally what guide most voter decisions at election time. This means that Labor must put forward a detailed and convincing policy agenda to gain the ascendancy on these ­issues or at least neutralise these Coalition strengths. There is not much sign of this yet.

It does not help that Labor is pursuing a small-target strategy. Voters need reasons to vote for Labor, not just against the Coalition. Where is Labor’s vision? Where are the grand plans? The courageous ideas? How can voters trust Labor if they don’t know what it stands for?

The danger for Labor next year is that without a leadership or policy advantage, voters will stick with the devil they know.