Time running out for PM’s date with the people

Handing over to his loyal deputy would be a more palatable option for Scott Morrison than Peter Dutton taking over.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison speaks with Peter Dutton and Josh Frydenberg during a spiteful Question Time in the House of Representatives this week. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Gary Ramage

It is looking increasingly likely the government will need to return to Canberra for sittings early next year ahead of an April budget and a May election. A case of deja vu from 2019.

Make no mistake, Scott Morrison would prefer to call the election after Australia Day, allowing him to hold the poll in March – but only if he knows he can win when calling it early.

That was already going to be difficult with border restrictions in Western Australia likely to persist into March. The Prime Minister needs to spend time in the west to stand any chance of retaining the 11 of 16 seats he holds in WA. A 14-day quarantine isn’t realistic on the election trail, obviously.

The Coalition will be hoping that by March WA Premier Mark McGowan has seen the light and opened things back up.

After the past sitting week, with further dysfunction expected again next week, time may not be on Morrison’s side for a March election either. Coming from behind to win is tough enough, but with declining personal ratings and constant internal disunity it can become nigh impossible.

If March comes and goes as an option, Morrison loses control of the timing. His only option left becomes bringing the budget forward to April and going in May. It worked last time, but that’s because the budget was a chance to showcase claims of balancing the books (which never ended up happening). This time it will show rising debt and no real pathway back to a balanced budget, and there will be increasing pressure on inflation and interest rates.

Josh Frydenberg may not be able to pull another rabbit out of his hat. The Treasurer will be motivated to do so, given the likelihood that if Morrison is re-elected he’s unlikely to serve a full term. Handing over to his loyal deputy would be a more palatable option for the Prime Minister than Peter Dutton taking over.

And in opposition you can bet there would be a contest between the sensible centre (Frydenberg) and the conservative and hard-right elements within the Liberals (Dutton supporters).

After the past sitting week, with further dysfunction expected again next week, time may not be on Morrison’s side for a March electionPicture: NCA NewsWire / Gary Ramage

It is a bleak picture for the Coalition if it doesn’t find a way to win next year’s election. After the 2007 defeat the risk of long-term factional wounds opening up was high, but Labor made a meal of government and the Coalition found itself back in, in relatively rapid time, papering over ideological schisms that were never addressed.

The penultimate sitting week of the year was chaotic at best for Team Morrison, largely because it was acting like anything but a team. Coalition MPs and senators crossed the floor or threatened to, and there were questions about government MPs, even Morrison, not doing enough to condemn violent protests. Next week more retirements will be announced and further objections between moderates and conservatives will be raised about the Religious Discrimination Bill tabled in parliament on Thursday.

Then we have the ghost of the federal integrity commission legislation. Where is it? Nowhere to be seen is the answer. Will it come up next week? Who knows? If not, why not? Given we hear endless excuses for the Religious Discrimination Bill needing to be put front and centre before the end of the year because doing so was an election commitment, why no word on a federal integrity commission? It is a shocking indictment on the government that it has prioritised the Religious Discrimination Bill over a federal integrity commission. And on Thursday in question time Morrison appeared to double down in his refusal to commit, claiming that the NSW Premier was dudded by the NSW Independent Commission Against Corruption.

That is an extraordinary claim in the context of what was revealed during Gladys Berejiklian giving testimony. When you include the conga line of rorts that have been exposed during this term of government – from sports rorts to carpark rorts to a litany of bad behaviour (alleged and proven) by members of Team Morrison – it is easy to see why the Morrison government doesn’t want a powerful watchdog and why it needs one.

While the pathway to Morrison’s victory appears to be narrowing by the day, it is also true that many of the issues dominating debates inside the beltway will fall away once the campaign proper is called. Will Labor persist with its argument that Morrison is a liar and not to be trusted? Most likely. But whether it works is an entirely different proposition.

Labor tried the same thing in 2004 against John Howard off the back of the children overboard scandal and the non-existent weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. But Howard flipped the debate on its head and made polling day a referendum on which side of politics voters trusted to manage the economy. His focus was interest rates and keeping them low – always an issue in Australia with rising house prices coupled with the indebtedness of many Australian mortgage holders.

We see global signs of inflation, and domestically talk of rates going up late next year or early 2023 has started. During the past fortnight we’ve also started to see government messaging on “who do you trust” on the economy.

Right now it isn’t in focus. It won’t be next week either. Government chaos in Canberra will capture the headlines. But once the summer break takes hold, and Australians relax into their holiday season, Morrison will hope to jolt them out of it with the mother of all scare campaigns against electing a Labor government.

And Labor MPs know this. Many with whom I spoke in parliament this week are almost despondent about the prospect of what lies ahead, worried that Anthony Albanese doesn’t have what it takes to win a campaign.

I’m not sure that’s true but, yes, Morrison remains the favourite. But it will be very close, a ground campaign seat by seat, state by state. Any surprises could bring either side unstuck.

If Morrison wins he becomes the first prime minister since Howard to serve a full term, but victory at two consecutive elections isn’t something even Paul Keating managed. No one since Howard has.

Defeat, however, would mean that voters took a good look at Morrison as the first prime minister to serve a full term since Howard and decided they didn’t like what they saw. In the wake of a pandemic favouring incumbents, that would be some rejection.

Peter van Onselen is the political editor at the Ten Network and a professor of politics and public policy at the University of Western Australia and Griffith University.