Newspoll: Mark McGowan goes full bore to win

Zak Kirkup’s controversial early concession has failed to stop rusted-on Liberal voters from jumping ship to Labor.

Mark McGowan takes a stroll with his parents Dennis and Mary through Kings Park. Picture: Colin Murty

West Australian Premier Mark McGowan is poised to deliver a ­record win over the Liberals, with an election-eve Newspoll giving his Labor Party a 66-34 lead in the two-party preferred vote.

The 10.5 per cent swing towards the government recorded in the latest poll would see the Liberals reduced to just three seats in Western Australia’s lower house if replicated across all electorates.

While that is an ­improvement from the two seats forecast by Newspoll a month ago, it would still result in the Liberals losing their status as both the ­opposition and a major party.

The Nationals would emerge with four seats and the right to ­become the opposition party if the Newspoll results were replicated on election day. Nationals leader Mia Davies told The Weekend Australian last month that she was prepared to step up as opposition leader if necessary.

The latest poll results suggest the controversial early concession of the election by Opposition Leader Zak Kirkup has failed to stop Liberal voters from jumping ship. Mr Kirkup’s campaign has pivoted over the past month to consistent warnings about the risks of handing “total control” of parliament to Labor, but the strategy has seen the Liberals eke out only a 2 per cent improvement in their two-party-preferred status.

The polling suggests the Liberal Party will record its worst-ever result in a WA election, with Mr Kirkup appearing certain to become the first WA leader in ­almost 90 years to lose his seat on election day.

 

Newspoll found that 34 per cent of people who said they typically identified as Liberal voters were instead voting for Labor at this election, an unprecedented desertion that highlights the ­astounding popularity of Mc­Gowan and the Liberals’ own troubled campaign. That came ­despite almost half of those same voters saying they believed that having a strong opposition in parliament was important.

The Liberals’ primary vote is unchanged from the February poll, which preceded Mr Kirkup’s concession of the election. Instead, the two percentage points of primary vote shed by Labor since then have been split between the Greens and the ­Nationals.

 

The results also suggest Mr Kirkup’s early concession has backfired on him personally. His dissatisfaction rating has climbed significantly since he conceded the election could not be won, ­rising from 41 per cent to 49 per cent. His satisfaction rating ­improved slightly from 29 per cent to 32 per cent.

In his last press conference ­before election day, Mr Kirkup said it had been “disconcerting” to see polling that suggested he would lose his seat.

“This election isn’t about me. This election is about the prospect of Labor getting total power, this is all about making sure that after this election there is still a Liberal Party there holding Labor to ­account,” he said. “A Labor landslide would be devastating for Western Australia and I urge all voters to consider what it would cost them if Labor get elected and they’re unstoppable.”

Mr McGowan has consistently refused to be drawn on the likely outcome. After reuniting with his parents — who had driven from NSW to Perth — he used his final pre-election media appearance in Perth’s northern suburbs to ­implore voters to support his government.

“Our government has shown over the last four years that we are stable, reasonable, sensible people that put in place policies that protect the jobs and health of Western Australians,” he said. “If we are re-elected that will continue.”

The impending carnage will leave the Liberals with the smallest of partyrooms to rebuild around. The only seats that look certain to be retained are Vasse (held by deputy leader Libby Mettam), Cottesloe (David Honey) and Churchlands (Sean L’Estrange). Both Dr Honey and Mr L’Estrange were central figures in a shambolic press conference on Thursday, when they struggled to explain the obvious black holes around the costs of their election promises.

Among the seats at real risk of falling are the blue-ribbon strongholds of Nedlands, Bateman and South Perth — all of which could now be won by Labor for the first time in history.

And the seats held by the Liberals’ past three leaders — Mike Nahan’s seat of Riverton, Liza Harvey in Scarborough and the incumbent Mr Kirkup in Dawesville — all now look certain to fall to Labor. Mr McGowan will begin his next term in government with an economy that is outperforming most others around Australia and the world. An analysis by S&P Global Ratings this week ­described WA’s budget performance as the best on the planet, thanks primarily to soaring iron ore royalties.

Zak Kirkup and a Labor campaign worker in Dawesville. Picture: Colin Murty

The government has avoided any promises of big-ticket policies, instead focusing on Mr McGowan and his promise to keep WA “safe and strong”. While the lack of major policy may appear a missed ­opportunity given Mr McGowan’s looming mandate, his outgoing Treasurer Ben Wyatt said job creation and the delivery of the government’s longstanding Metronet rail network would be the signature of the government.

“I don’t accept that at every election campaign there needs to be an enormous, expensive ­announcement,” he said.

The boom in iron ore has filled government coffers but there are still concerns. Chris Rodwell, the chief executive of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry WA, said mining now comprised 43 per cent of the WA economy and non-mining business investment in the state had fallen for seven of the past eight years.