Popular Premier Mark McGowan to lead wipeout in the West

The popularity of WA’s Labor premier Mark McGowan has topped levels never seen before in the history of Newspoll.

West Australian Labor Premier Mark McGowan visits Belridge Secondary College in Beldon, Perth, ahead of the March 13 election. Picture: Colin Murty

The Liberals are headed for a ­generational wipeout at the ­upcoming West Australian election, with the party at risk of emerging with as few as two seats in the next parliament.

And the popularity of Western Australia’s Labor Premier, Mark McGowan, has topped levels never seen ­before in the history of Newspoll, emerging from the ­recent lockdown of two million people in Perth and the state’s South West region without any harm to his standing.

The survey for The Weekend Australian found that Labor leads the Liberal Party by 68 per cent to 32 on a two-party preferred basis, a 12.5 per cent swing to the government. If replicated across all electorates this would see the Liberal Party lose almost all of its seats at the March 13 election.

The poll suggests a landslide of the ilk of Campbell Newman’s 2012 win in Queensland — which reduced the Labor Party to just seven seats — and Labor’s 2011 ­capitulation in NSW when it held only 20 of its 52 seats.

The Liberal Party’s gamble to appoint young first-term MP Zak Kirkup as leader in December has failed to produce any inroads against Mr McGowan, whose strong leadership early in the pandemic and hardline stand on the state’s border have proved wildly popular. A surge in iron ore prices has helped make Western Australia the only state with a budget surplus and has helped spark a ­revival in much of the economy.

A uniform 12.5 per cent swing towards the government would leave just deputy Liberal leader Libby Mettam and member for Cottesloe David Honey representing the party in the lower house. The Nationals would hold four seats under such a scenario, and would effectively become the opposition.

Mr McGowan’s satisfaction-dissatisfaction rating now sits at 88 to 10, eclipsing previous leader ratings recorded by Newspoll.

He also enjoys an unprecedented lead as preferred premier over Mr Kirkup — 83 per cent to 10. The previous biggest margin was when former Victorian Labor premier Steve Bracks led Denis Napthine 74-8 in 2000.

Mr McGowan has consistently denied that the election is a foregone conclusion, arguing that Labor was up against the Liberal Party, the Nationals, One Nation and Clive Palmer.

“We are not so arrogant as to just assume the election is won,” he said on Friday. “We have a hard fight ahead of us.”

The Liberal Party has all but conceded the election this week, pivoting its campaign towards trying to salvage a viable opposition. Mr Kirkup has been urging voters to consider what the parliament would look like if Labor controlled both houses.

“The risk of total control of the West Australian government is real. Let’s not be kidding ourselves here,” he said on Friday.

“If the Labor Party got their wish for Western Australia, they would have total and absolute power over the parliament without any checks or balances.

“I think that is dangerous for our democracy.”

Mr Kirkup, who holds his seat of Dawesville by a margin of just 0.8 per cent, is among those most at risk of losing his seat.

Previous Newspoll records for preferred premier were held by Mr Bracks over Mr Napthine in July-August 2000. Queensland Labor premier Wayne Goss previously had the single highest satisfaction in a 2002 Newspoll — 75 to 18.

Martin Drum, a senior lecturer in politics at the University of Notre Dame in Fremantle, said the West Australian campaign was extraordinary in its inevitability.

“There’s a very real chance that the ability of a second-term Liberal opposition could be ­greatly hindered and they might be quite an ineffective opposition,” he said.

“If they end up below 10 (seats), that’s pretty catastrophic.”

Dr Drum said the swing ­towards the government was likely to be far less pronounced in safer Liberal seats, but it was highly likely that at least some of them would fall.

“They are hoping to limit the damage, but some of those seats that should be very natural Liberal seats are going to be in the gun,” he said.

The Liberal Party is on to its fourth leader in four years and has been criticised for failing to attract new talent.

The party has come under heavy fire from Perth property developer Nigel Satterley, who has accused religious conservatives of hijacking its preselection processes.

Peter Kennedy — the author of the anthology of West Australian premiers, Tales from Boomtown: West Australian Premiers from Brand to McGowan — said the upcoming election would be “absolutely one-sided”.

While Mr McGowan had shown good leadership during the pandemic and had enjoyed the good fortune of strong iron ore prices, he said the Liberal Party also had itself to blame.

“They haven’t been strong on policy and they needed to rebuild after the wipe-out of four years ago and attract talented candidates in seats they hoped to win. But they haven’t done that,” Mr Kennedy said.