Labor wins but suffers swing in by-election for Mulgrave
With more than three quarters of the vote counted, Labor’s Eden Foster has declared victory, despite the party suffering an almost 11 per cent plunge in its primary vote.
Labor has declared victory in Victorian premier Daniel Andrews’s old seat of Mulgrave, despite a fall of almost 11 per cent in the party’s primary vote, as voters seek out alternatives to both major parties.
With more than 35,000, or 75.16 per cent of votes counted, Labor’s Eden Foster was sitting on a primary of 40.01 per cent late on Saturday night, down from Mr Andrews’s 51.0 per cent at the state election almost a year ago.
Liberal candidate Courtney Mann was on 21.57 per cent, and high profile independent Ian Cook on 18.89 per cent — up from 17.19 per cent and 18.01 per cent for the Liberals and Mr Cook respectively in last year’s contest for the southeastern Melbourne seat.
Premier Jacinta Allan said the community of Mulgrave had turned to Labor to support them.
“And they’ve done that for one simple reason: they know that Labor delivers,” she said.
The Premier spruiked free kinder, free TAFE, the removal of 72 level crossings with plans to remove another 38, and the government’s plan to revive the State Electricity Commission as key policies.
“I am incredibly humbled to be here this evening in a room chock full of our fabulous members and volunteers Ms Allan said.
“When we started this campaign, we knew we were in for a tough fight. We knew it would be a hard one to win and of course, Daniel Andrews served the community here for 20 years, and everyone on every street knew Daniel. He was part of this community, he was trusted by this community, and the impact of his work in this community was clear, by-elections are certainly challenging.
“They’re certainly challenging for governments, but as we know, they’re especially challenging when the by-election is held in the seat of retiring, long serving Premier.
“Also too, we knew that it would be a tough context, because families at times now are doing it tough off the back of consecutive interest rate rises, and we know that the community of Mulgrave was looking to a candidate, a person and a movement that understands their needs, will listen to their concerns, but most importantly, bring about real change and real action, and that’s what we’ve seen at the ballot box today.”
Ms Allan thanked the 150 volunteers who had manned voting booths, and revealed the party had knocked on 7000 doors on Saturday alone to remind residents to vote.
Ms Foster thanked Ms Allan for her support, mentorship, “incredible wisdom”, and for being “a fantastic role model for women.”
“Tonight I am truly humbled to stand here in front of you to be the next Labor MP for Mulgrave. It is an amazing feeling,” she said.
“I put my hand up to run in this campaign because this community has given me everything.
“The journey of a working class girl from Noble Park to Spring Street has not been an easy one. I was raised by a single mum, as many of you know, and she worked tirelessly to keep a roof over our heads and really to give me a better life.
“These early experiences of my mum’s strength, her determination and her never-give-up attitude have really made me into the woman that I am today, and the woman that stands in front of you today.”
2PP 55-45, but may change as Cook on track to poll third
The Victorian Electoral Commission earlier confirmed it would begin counting votes as a two-candidate-preferred contest between Ms Foster and Mr Cook, signalling they believed the Liberal Party was likely to poll third, but if Mr Mann continued to outpoll Mr Cook, they would be forced to reverse this decision.
With preferences distributed for more than 23,000 votes, Ms Foster lead Mr Cook 56.16 per cent to 43.84 per cent two-party-preferred.
A more likely final contest between Mr Mann and Ms Foster may alter the final margin, but still result in a clear Labor win.
The result compares with the 10.2 per cent two-party-preferred margin Mr Andrews achieved last year, despite a 4.9 per cent swing against him, after Mr Cook, of “Slug Gate” fame, campaigned against the government which shut his catering business down.
The Victorian Supreme Court this week found former chief health officer Brett Sutton failed to honour procedural fairness when he made the “invalid” order to shut down Dandenong-based I Cook Foods, but opted not to award compensation.
Among other candidates, Greens candidate and Dandenong councillor Rhonda Garad was polling 5.92 per cent, Victorian Socialists candidate Kelly Cvetkova 3.77 per cent, Family First candidate Jane Foreman 3.09 per cent, Libertarian Party candidate Ethelyn King 2.95 per cent, Independent Tina Theodossopoulou 1.86 per cent, Animal Justice Party candidate and Victorian convener Bronwyn Currie 1.08 per cent, and Sustainable Australia Party candidate Celeste Ackerley 0.77 per cent.
The informal vote was 5.42 per cent.
‘Swing what we would expect’: Labor
Shortly after 9pm, Minister for Government Services, Consumer Affairs and Public Transport, Gabrielle Williams, told Sky News the swing against Labor was “what we would expect,” as she praised Ms Foster, a 42-year-old Dandenong Mayor and school psychologist who has lived in the Mulgrave area all her life.
“We know by-elections are very tough, but particularly when you’ve had someone with such a strong personal vote, a very popular outgoing member in Daniel Andrews, so that was always going to be the case and is in line with our expectations,” said Ms Williams, who holds the neighbouring seat of Dandenong.
Asked whether the VEC had made the wrong call in distributing preferences to Mr Cook, Ms Williams said election outcomes could be “hard to predict at times.”
“What we’re seeing from the numbers so far is that the swing towards the Liberals is not as significant as we would have probably expected, and that’s for them to reflect on, but what we know is that we put in a great candidate in this by-election, Eden Foster, a local her whole life in this area, former mayor of the city of Greater Dandenong, a strong personal story, someone who brings great integrity to this position, and we certainly hope that the voters elect her tonight, but it’s early days,” Ms Williams said.
“I think it’s too close to call. We’ve still got numbers coming in. Many booths still don’t have their two-party-preferred data in, and we’ll wait to see that before making any statements about what we think the outcome will be.”
Asked whether she had heard from the former local member Mr Andrews, Ms Williams said: “I haven’t heard from him yet myself. I don’t know if others have, but I’m sure he’s taking great interest in what’s happening in his much-loved seat of Mulgrave.”
‘Labor’s primary has taken a massive hit’: Pesutto
With his candidate and staffer Mr Mann sitting on a primary vote of 21.57 per cent — up from the 17.19 per cent the Liberals polled in Mulgrave last year — Mr Pesutto thanked the 38-year-old and his Liberal team for running a “fantastic campaign”.
“In just three weeks, they have increased the Liberal Party’s primary vote and Labor has taken a massive hit on its primary vote in one of its safest seats,” Mr Pesutto said.
“The people of Mulgrave have sent a strong message to Jacinta Allan. They have said they are tired of her taxes, waste and mismanagement. They are tired of Labor doing nothing to address the rising cost of living.
“Voters can see that Jacinta Allan is simply more of the same. The person who has been responsible for cost blow-outs, our record debt and the $600 million Commonwealth Games debacle that humiliated Victoria.
“Over the next three years we will continue to work hard to give Victorians the alternative government they deserve. A government they can trust to manage their money responsibly, end the waste and restore integrity to our great state.
“We will fight to win every seat we can because we want to represent all Victorians and make Victoria the best state in Australia to live, work, raise a family, operate a business and invest in.”
Libs take over Daniel Andrews’s election night venue
Liberal Party faithful gathered at the Village Green Hotel in Mulgrave, better known as the venue for the former premier’s election night parties.
Supporters of Mr Mann, 38, were hoping he could achieve a significantly higher primary than the 17.19 per cent won by 2022 Liberal candidate Michael Piastrino.
The Mulgrave by-election follows the Liberals’ victory in August’s Warrandyte by-election, which Mr Pesutto hailed as a evidence of a “turning tide” in state politics, despite the absence of a Labor candidate.
On Friday the Opposition Leader said the party’s had work to do to improve upon its 2022 result in Mulgrave.
“We polled less than Ian Cook … so we’re conscious that there’s a bit of a challenge, but we’ve worked really hard,” Mr Pesutto said.
“I’ve been down on pre-poll for a number of days … and we’re just going to get out there and fight. As for what the numbers are, we’ll see. We just want to do as well as we can.”
Redbridge pollster and former Labor strategist Kos Samaras predicted the Liberals would run third, “which is bad news for them. I think Pesutto’s crazy advertising the fact that he’s been out there,” Mr Samaras said.
“I can’t see the Libs jumping over Cook. If they do, people are looking at them as a genuine alternative, but if they don’t it’s clear that Melburnians actually no longer have them on their radar as a future government.”
Multiple Liberal members, including several from Mr Pesutto’s moderate faction, questioned the wisdom of the party even running in Mulgrave. “He could be gone by Christmas if Mulgrave is under a 5 per cent swing to us,” said one.
‘By-elections for governments can be challenging’: Allan
Meanwhile, Labor supporters gathered at the Noble Park RSL, after Ms Allan earlier joined Ms Foster at polling booths in Noble Park and Mulgrave to hand out how-to-vote cards.
Ms Allan conceded it was likely there would be a swing against Labor.
“As the results come in, no doubt there’ll be lots of analysis. We do know from history that by-elections for governments can be challenging,” the Premier said.
“Eden will bring a strong and powerful voice to the Victorian parliament on behalf of the Mulgrave community if Eden and the Labor team are fortunate to get through the by-election today.”
Ms Foster said cost of living was a key issue for voters, and many had told her of their support for Mr Andrews as their former local member.
“I have had many residents that have come in and said, ‘We’ve really loved the work Daniel Andrews has done in the community and for the community’,” Ms Foster said.
Low voter turnout likely
Earlier this week, the electoral commission said uptake of early and postal votes had been lower than expected, with about 13,000 people voting early and about 2,300 having submitted postal votes as of Friday.
Mr Cook’s team on Wednesday complained to the VEC, accusing them of a failure to advertise the by-election in culturally and linguistically diverse media after he doorknocked households and found they were unaware the vote was taking place.
“We have similarly been notified by locals of the failure of the VEC to distribute any individual hard copy or ‘snail mail’ material to voters advising them of the by-election and requirement to vote,” Mr Cook’s complaint to the commission said.
Lower turnout is considered most likely to be highest among younger people and those from non-English speaking backgrounds, who have historically favoured Labor.
Demographically diverse seat
More than 47,000 voters are registered in Mulgrave, which covers 35.5 square-kilometres of demographically diverse suburbs, including Mulgrave and Noble Park North, as well as parts of Dandenong North, Noble Park, Springvale and Wheelers Hill.
While affluent Wheelers Hill has a median house price of $1.436 million according to realestate.com.au. Mulgrave, in the middle of the seat, has a median price of $1.045, and houses in Noble Park North, at the southern end of the seat, are worth $730,000.
Census data shows 68 per cent of Noble Park North residents had both parents born overseas, with the most common countries of birth India, Vietnam, Sri Lanka, Greece and Cambodia.
On the other side of Police Road in Mulgrave, just 18.5 per cent of residents had both parents born overseas — most commonly in New Zealand and England.
Wheelers Hill is home to a wealthier migrant community, with 59 per cent of people the children of overseas-born parents, most commonly from China, Malaysia, India and Sri Lanka.
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