‘Make or break’ vote for John Pesutto

The Liberal Party is likely to poll third in Daniel Andrews’s old seat of Mulgrave on Saturday, say pundits, but the size of a swing matters for the Opposition Leader.

Victorian Opposition Leader John Pesutto in September, after Daniel Andrews announced he was quitting. Picture: Getty Images

The Victorian Liberal Party is likely to poll third in the battle for Daniel Andrews’s old seat of Mulgrave, behind high-profile independent Ian Cook and Labor candidate Eden Foster, according to pundits in both the Labor and Liberal camps.

Saturday’s by-election for the southeastern Melbourne seat is being seen by some Liberals as a make-or-break test for Opposition Leader John Pesutto, ahead of a mediation meeting with Moira Deeming on Sunday described by senior Liberals as a “last-ditch attempt” to stop the expelled MP from filing a defamation case against Mr Pesutto in the Federal Court.

Mr Pesutto hit the hustings at the Springvale market on Friday morning with staffer and Mulgrave candidate Courtney Mann and upper house MP Trung Luu in tow, in a bid to garner Vietnamese community support.

Asked if a failure to poll at least second would demonstrate the people of Mulgrave do not see the Liberals as a viable alternative government, he said last year’s election results in the seat had been “disappointing”.

Mr Andrews won Mulgrave with a 10.2 per cent two-party-preferred margin and 51 per cent primary vote in November, while Liberal candidate Michael Piastrino gained a primary vote of 17.19 per cent, and Mr Cook polled a primary of 18.01 per cent.

“We polled less than Ian Cook … so we’re conscious that there’s a bit of a challenge, but we’ve worked really hard,” Mr Pesutto said. “I’ve been down on pre-poll for a number of days … and we’re just going to get out there and fight. As for what the numbers are, we’ll see. We just want to do as well as we can.”

While Labor candidate Ms Foster is widely expected to win, the party is tipped to take a haircut, as generally occurs following the resignation of a high-profile local member.

Dandenong Mayor Ms Foster is a school psychologist who, like Mr Mann, grew up in the area, while Mr Cook, of “Slug Gate” fame, is running after the Victorian Supreme Court this week found former chief health officer Brett Sutton failed to honour procedural fairness when he made the “invalid” order to shut down Mr Cook’s Mulgrave-based catering business.

Redbridge pollster and former Labor strategist Kos Samaras said Labor would suffer “a swing against it on primary” and suffer from low voter turnout.

“The Liberals will run third, which is bad news for them. I think Pesutto’s crazy advertising the fact that he’s been out there,” Mr Samaras said.

“I can’t see the Libs jumping over Cook. If they do, people are looking at them as a genuine alternative, but if they don’t it’s clear that Melburnians actually no longer have them on their radar as a future government.”

Multiple Liberals, including several from Mr Pesutto’s moderate faction, questioned the wisdom of the party even running in Mulgrave. “He could be gone by Christmas if Mulgrave is under a 5 per cent swing to us,” said one.

Meanwhile a Liberal preselection for the federal seat of Higgins, scheduled for Sunday, could be postponed, amid a lack of confidence among a sizeable proportion of party members in the two candidates who have nominated.

Paediatrician Katie Allen, who lost the seat to Labor’s Michelle Ananda-Rajah at last year’s election, is vying to recontest, alongside Port Phillip Mayor and software businessman Marcus Pearl, after ANU National Security College senior adviser Will Stoltz was suddenly forced to pull out of the race for personal reasons, which reportedly relate to his previous career in defence intelligence and law enforcement.

In the absence of Stoltz, who was the clear frontrunner, a group of party members is pushing for delegates to vote “no” on the ballot they will be given at the beginning of the preselection, which asks them whether or not the vote should proceed.

Should the preselection convention be nullified, it is likely it would be postponed to March.