Election 2022: Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews’ patch sees a swing

Of the 20 booths in the Premier’s southeastern Melbourne seat, 16 recorded primary vote swings against Labor, including seven that had double-digit swings.

Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews and Anthony Albanese in Melbourne in early May. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Luis Enrique Ascui

Analysis of voting patterns at booths in Daniel Andrews’ state seat of Mulgrave shows a volatile, divided electorate dissatisfied with both major parties, with poorer voters more likely to have swung against Labor.

Of the 20 booths in the ­Victorian Premier’s southeastern Melbourne seat, 16 recorded ­primary vote swings against Labor, including seven with ­double-digit swings.

The swings were more pronounced in the poorest, most multicultural part of Mr Andrews’ seat, in the suburb of Noble Park North, and lowest in the northern, more affluent area around Wheelers Hill.

The Noble Park North booth in the federal seat of Hotham, held by incoming minister Clare O’Neil, recorded the highest swing against Labor of 22.73 per cent, with a 7.48 per cent swing to the Liberal Democrats, 7.32 per cent to the Greens, 7.06 per cent to the United Australia Party, 5.56 per cent to One Nation, and a -1.98 per cent swing against the Liberals resulting in a two-party-preferred swing against the ALP of 8.25 per cent.

It was a similar story in Noble Park North Upper, in the federal seat of Bruce, held by Mr Andrews’ Socialist Left factional ally Julian Hill, where there was a 17.28 per cent swing against Labor and swings of 10.36 per cent to the UAP, 5.08 per cent to the Liberal Democrats, 4.57 per cent to One Nation, 3.38 to the Greens, and 3.35 per cent against the Liberals, resulting in a 1.94 per cent two-party-preferred swing against Labor.

Chisholm, won by union official Carina Garland from Liberal Gladys Liu on Saturday, is the third of the three federal seats overlapping the Premier’s electorate. Of the Chisholm booths, the one with the biggest swing against Labor was in the suburb of Mulgrave, at 15.02 per cent. There was also a 5.64 per cent swing against the Liberals, correlating with 11.04 per cent to the Greens, 3.41 per cent to One ­Nation, 2.93 per cent to the Animal Justice Party and 1.46 per cent to the Liberal Democrats.

 

The Mulgrave state electorate booth with the strongest swing towards Labor was at Jells Park Primary School in Wheelers Hill, where a primary swing of 5.65 per cent to Dr Garland and 14.14 per cent against Ms Liu, resulted in a two-party-preferred swing of 11.54 per cent to Labor.

Affluent Wheelers Hill has a median house price of $1.4m, ­according to realestate.com.au.

Mulgrave, in the middle of the Premier’s seat, has a median price of $1.017m, while houses in Noble Park North, at the southern end of the seat, are worth $770,000.

Census data shows 68 per cent of Noble Park North residents had both parents born overseas, with the most common countries of birth India, Vietnam, Sri Lanka, Greece and Cambodia.

On the other side of Police Road in Mulgrave, just 18.5 per cent of residents had both parents born overseas — most commonly in New Zealand and England.

Wheelers Hill is home to a wealthier migrant community, with 59 per cent of people the children of overseas-born parents, most commonly from China, Malaysia, India and Sri Lanka.

Asked to reflect on the booth results, Mr Andrews said he knew his constituents could differentiate between state and federal ­issues, but the November state election “will be close”.

“I’m part of my local community. I’ve never taken anything for ­granted,” he said. “I know that my local community knows the difference between a federal election and state election and I’m not here to provide you with commentary, booth-by-booth analysis.”

“I’ve got far too many other things to do than to be getting into that. I’ll leave the analysis to you. At the end of the day, November will be close. Elections are always close. Always. A handful of votes and a handful of sites.”

Mr Andrews holds Mulgrave with a 12.71 per cent margin.

Mr Hill had a 5.85 per cent primary vote swing against him on Saturday, bringing his two-party-preferred margin to 6.74 per cent.

Ms O’Neil has a 14.58 per cent 2PP margin having withstood a 2.44 per cent primary swing against her, and Dr Garland ­secured a 4.64 per cent primary swing to establish a 7.01 per cent 2PP margin.