Voice referendum: Double trouble for the Yes camp

Yes campaigners in Queensland and WA are bracing for a bruising defeat at Saturday’s referendum, despite a flurry of volunteer-driven last-minute action in the outlying states.

Jan Gorbacz for the No campaign and Rob Cox for the Yes campaign hand out how-to-vote cards at a referendum polling place in the electorate of Groom in Toowoomba in south-east Queensland. Picture: Kevin Farmer

Yes campaigners in Queensland and Western Australia are ­bracing for a bruising defeat at Saturday’s referendum, despite a flurry of volunteer-driven last-minute action in the outlying states.

In published polling on support for the voice referendum, the two jurisdictions – which make up about 30 per cent of the national voting population – have consistently remained at the bottom of the national tally.

The Yes campaign has mobilised about 70,000 volunteers ­nationwide – eclipsing the 25,000 estimated by the No side – and Yes23 director and Quandamooka man from Queensland’s Minjerribah Dean Parkin issued a final plea to voters to back the proposal.

“A very simple act by all Queenslanders and West Australians in voting Yes can lead to a practical change for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples across the country,” he said.

A Labor volunteer working on the Yes campaign told The Weekend Australian the result would “go down the gurgler” in those two states, a prediction backed by No campaign insiders.

“If we get 40 per cent in Queensland it would be a good result ... and in WA, the cultural heritage laws really stuffed us over there,” the volunteer said.

Another senior campaigner said while “Queensland and WA were always going to be the toughest to get over the line”, WA had the benefit of high-­profile Liberals backing the Yes vote, including former foreign minister Julie Bishop.

In Queensland, all state and federal LNP MPs appear to be publicly backing a No vote, apart from the state LNP MP for Bonney on the Gold Coast, Sam O’Connor.

The Yes campaigner said: “As soon as (Opposition Leader) Peter Dutton came out so negatively against the voice, with such a strong message from Dutton as a Queensland leader, we were in trouble.”

On Friday, Mr Dutton said he supported “the recognition of Indigenous Australians because of their 65,000-year connection to our country” and claimed a referendum on that would have achieved “90 per cent support”.

“Instead, the Prime Minister has gone down the path of the voice,” he said.

Gold Coast MP Sam O’Connor is the only Queensland LNP politician to publicly back the Indigenous voice to parliament. Picture Glenn Hampson

Pollster Kos Samaras, director of RedBridge Group Australia and former campaign strategist for Victorian and federal Labor, said the two states would be crucial.

“If the support for the voice in Queensland and WA is in the 30s, support for the voice in the other four states needs to exceed 56 per cent,” he said on Twitter.

“This will meet the first threshold (four states) but it will be just enough to meet the second threshold, the national ­majority.”

Queensland-based demographic pollsters DemosAU’s latest survey of 2251 voters nationwide between October 1 and 9 revealed a Yes vote of 30 per cent in Queensland, 57 per cent for No, and 12 per cent undecided.

In WA, the results were similar: 30 per cent Yes, 57 per cent No, and 13 per cent undecided.

DemosAU director and head of research George Hasanakos said Queensland and WA were traditionally difficult to convince to vote for constitutional reform in referendums.

“They’re a bit more sceptical of initiatives which come out of Canberra,” he said.