Heartbreak descends as Melbourne falls silent

Victoria’s stage-four could be the ‘death knell’ for hundreds of thousands of workers and businesses, business figures warn.

A Melburnian walks past a deserted Southern Cross Station on Monday. Picture: Daniel Pockett

The Victorian government’s ­desperate scramble to halt the spread of COVID-19 has prompted an unprecedented shutdown of the state’s most lucrative industries, with Premier Daniel Andrews introducing a raft of “painful” restrictions that will devastate the national economy for years to come.

While the restrictions will see most retail, manufacturing and administration businesses close and strict limits placed on numbers of workers in settings such as abattoirs, warehouses and construction sites, many industries in which there have been significant coronavirus clusters will continue to operate, including health, aged care and takeaway food.

Mr Andrews said Victorians’ lives and livelihoods depended on the new stage-four measures being successful, but conceded that a further 250,000 workers would be stood down for at least the next six weeks, meaning more than a million Melburnians would be working from home until at least the end of September.

THE RESTRICTIONS EXPLAINED

Scott Morrison said it was “another heartbreaking day for Victorians” as he announced a $1500 pandemic leave disaster payment to ensure people required to isolate as a result of exposure to coronavirus could afford to stay home from work.

“I know that across Victoria, many today, frankly, would have reached breaking point trying to come to terms with what has happened in their state, what it means for them, what it means for their family, what it means for their businesses,” the Prime Minister said. “They‘ve worked so hard for their jobs, for their livelihoods, for the care of their children and their education. It’s heartbreaking. This pandemic, this virus, is taking a heavy toll.”

Business figures warned that the measures could be the “death knell” for hundreds of thousands of workers and businesses in the state, which represents 25 per cent of the national economy.

Modelling from KPMG, seen by The Australian, shows the imposition of stage-four restrictions across Melbourne will cost the state’s economy $830m in lost output in August alone, more than erasing months of hard-fought economic recovery since the lows of April.

Announcing the restrictions, Mr Andrews conceded they would effectively double the number of Victorians stood down from their jobs as a result of the coronavirus.

“We estimate we have about 500,000 people working from home,” the Premier said.

“We know there (are) about 250,000 people stood down in one form or another and this will add a further 250,000 in rough numbers.

Police and military personnel patrol in Fitzroy Gardens in Melbourne on Monday. Picture: Daniel Pockett

“But that is essential: the one million workers who are not travelling to and from work every day.

“When you add in a million students together with teachers and staff, that is when you are radically, dramatically changing the number of people moving around the community, and therefore, the number of points at which the virus can be transmitted from one person to another.”

There were 429 new coronavirus cases in Victoria on Monday — a welcome reduction after a record 723 last Thursday. There are now 6489 active cases in the state.

Monday also brought news of 13 more deaths, equalling Thursday’s record. Victoria’s coronavirus death toll now stands at 136 — all but 20 of those deaths having occurred since July 5.

Mr Andrews said it would take “years” for Victoria to recover from both the economic and health impacts of the pandemic.

“But until we fix the health problem, until we get these case numbers down to a much, much lower level, we simply cannot open the economy up again, so there is significant damage that needs to be done here, but there is no choice but to do that damage, to fix the health problem and then be able to move to rebuilding the economy,” he said.

Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews. Picture: AFP

Mr Andrews said it was hard to imagine imposing even more ­severe restrictions than the ones he announced on Sunday and Monday, meaning stage-four restrictions had to work.

“There is no stage five,” he said. “It doesn‘t work. Otherwise, we will have to develop a set of rules that will even further limit people’s movement. We all have to follow these rules. We all have to accept that this is the reality we‘re now confronted by. We have to make this work. Because we’re, at best, uncertain what the next steps would be.”

Victorian Chamber of Commerce chief executive Paul Guerra said that many manufacturers and builders would be damaged by the latest round of restrictions.

“For many, many businesses in Victoria, and many workers in Victoria, this may well be the death knell,” Mr Guerra said. “The danger out of this is that if we lose employees from those sectors our ability to bounce back quickly is impacted. If they are not able to supply to local, national or even international factories, that means they will lose those contracts and this will impact their ability to come back.”

Businesses in Melbourne and the Mitchell Shire that suffer significant losses as a result of the current restrictions are eligible for a $10,000 grant, while those in the rest of regional Victoria can apply for $5000.

The new industry restrictions only apply in metropolitan Melbourne, other than for abattoirs where they apply statewide.

Supermarkets, grocery stores, bottle shops, pharmacies, petrol stations, banks, newsagencies, post offices and all organisations involved in the frontline response to coronavirus will remain open, but retail, some manufacturing and administration businesses must close from 11:59pm on Wednesday. Retail stores will be permitted to operate contactless “click and collect” and delivery services with safety protocols in place, and hardware stores such as Bunnings can remain open on site, but only for tradespeople.

The abattoir industry — which has been at the centre of at least half a dozen large COVID-19 clusters — will be forced to scale back production by a third and comply with restrictions on the number of workers allowed onsite, based on the ­minimum required to operate safely.

Mr Andrews said he expected this would see the workforce scaled back by two-thirds.

Warehousing and distribution centres in Melbourne will be limited to no more than two-thirds the normal workforce allowed onsite at any one time.

Workplaces that continue to operate will be required to mandate extra personal protective equipment as well as staggering shifts and breaks, communicating health declarations and providing support for sick workers to ensure they stay home.

Mr Andrews foreshadowed a new permit system for essential workers.

Victorian Chief Health Officer Brett Sutton said he was confident the measures would drive COVID-19 transmission down.

“The national committee of chief health officers, they are in support of this approach by Victoria,” Professor Sutton said.

A man walks past Southern Cross Station in Melbourne on Monday. Picture: Daniel Pockett