Elderly fears over wealth, not health

Elderly Australians are more than three times as concerned about the impact of the recession as they are about their personal health

An elderly man walks in Melbourne on Monday. Picture: AFP

Elderly Australians are more than three times as concerned about the impact of the recession as they are about their personal health, according to analysis by a top consulting firm that suggests compliance with health measures could drop as people “grow weary” and “emotional strain” mounts.

Analysis by McKinsey, based on a confidential periodic survey of around 800 consumers since April, also found younger Australians were far more worried about their personal health than those aged over 75, who were at much greater risk from the coronavirus.

“Since the start of COVID-19, concern over the economy has been higher than worry over health — especially over personal health,” McKinsey said in its assessment of the survey results.

 

The figures emerged as Victoria entered a six-week lockdown, including an unprecedented 8pm to 5am curfew, with Premier Dan Andrews announcing the closure of all non-essential businesses.

“Australians have expressed more concern over the economy than citizens in NZ, the US and China from the start of the crisis,” McKinsey said, drawing on similar surveys it had conducted in other jurisdictions.

Almost 85 per cent of Australians expect the economy to stagnate or fall into a lengthy recession compared to around 65 per cent and 70 per cent in the US and New Zealand respectively.

Among 14 concerns related to the coronavirus pandemic, “the Australian economy” was the top concern, followed by “not knowing how long it will last” and “public health”, the analysis found.

Among the over 75s, 59 per cent were “very or extremely” concerned about the economy, while 18 per cent offered the same level of concern about their own health.

By contrast, almost 40 per cent of Australians aged 25 to 44, were “very or extremely” concerned about their health, despite evidence they faced a lower risk. ­Almost half of the younger group said they had been “emotionally affected” by the pandemic, compared to 8 per cent for the over 75s.

The infection fatality rate — the share of people who die after contracting the virus — was one in 10,870 for those aged 20 to 49, according to new data from Switzerland published last month, and one in 18 for over 65s.

 

“Population-wide estimates of the infection fatality rate (0.64 per cent) mask great heterogeneity by age and point towards the importance of age-targeted interventions to reduce exposures among those at highest risk of death,” the authors wrote in The Lancet, a medical journal.

The McKinsey authors suggested couching economic costs in “difficult” macroeconomic aggregates such as GDP might undermine efforts to ensure compliance with public health orders.

“As Australians grow weary from prolonged restrictions in some geographies and suffer from emotional strain, the narrative around compliance needs to be dynamic and continually adapted,” the authors added.

 

“This will be true particularly in light of the planned changes to JobKeeper, JobSeeker which may create more financial strain in a segment of households.”

From early April to late June the share of respondents concerned about “public health” steadily fell from 60 per cent to 36 per cent, while the share worried about the economy hovered around 60 per cent.

In the most recently survey, in mid July, which followed the surge in infections in Victoria, the share of respondents’ concerns about public health jumped to 54 per cent, with 61 per cent worried about the economy.