Honesty on virus progress and strategy will win trust

In the second week of March Scott Morrison addressed the nation on the first hit of fiscal stimulus — what now seems a puny $17.6bn — and the health plan to deal with the pandemic. At the time we urged the Prime Minister to level with the public about the life in shutdown to come, to allow people to prepare physically and mentally for the days, weeks and months ahead. What was the modelling telling officials about how many people would be infected or die? What would happen to schools, workplaces and sporting events? All the talk was about “flattening the curve” of COVID-19 cases to buy time for our health systems to prepare and allow hospitals to cope. We understood that officials were flying blind in a fog with an enemy on their tail. Still, we argued we needed the real story: “Australians, quiet and strong, can handle the truth.”

The defensive mindset within our governments is again clogging the flow of information and is undermining trust and compliance with restrictions. The Victorian government has pulled hard on the emergency brake, declaring a state of disaster for six weeks and putting in place stage four restrictions, including a curfew from 8pm to 5am in metropolitan Melbourne and strict limits on mobility. The state’s Chief Health Officer, Brett Sutton, said the measures were a form of “shock and awe” to jolt fatigued citizens out of complacency. Was this the only way to get people to take notice? What is the government trying to achieve here? On Sunday, Professor Sutton said the six-week lockdown 2.0, almost two-thirds completed, had suppressed community transmission and “maybe” the state had passed the peak of infections. Victoria’s moving daily average of new cases had settled at around 500, so why escalate to lockdown 3.0? Is the testing too slow or the tracing busting at the seams?

If there is modelling or medical advice about an increase in community transmission, then why not share that with people? Was this simply a political decision? Or was it a fresh act in crisis theatre by Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews to reassert tight control and salvage prestige? We are desperately short on answers and free to speculate. Is Victoria’s extreme lockdown strategy aimed at limiting the number of deaths, which are mostly in aged-care homes, suppressing community transmission more generally or a forlorn attempt at eliminating the virus? How long will it take to reach the goal? What would stage five restrictions look like? So many questions, so few answers. Without the truth, citizens are left to catastrophise, aided by politicians with pumped-up metaphors, while TV reporters fan fears out of all proportion.

The idea we are in a war, propagated by numerous politicians, is counter-productive. It feeds a community siege mentality, leads to policy panic and even to a situation where legitimate questioning of decisions and alternative policy approaches draw a backlash. Commentators who raise the idea of cost-benefit analysis in calibrating the responses are portrayed as heartless, indifferent to the most vulnerable in our midst, or oddly obsessed about the economy. To these trolls, often ensconced in the public sector, it’s as if jobs, sales, taxes and profits are abstract concepts and not the human-based vectors of how we have arranged the mutually beneficial exchanges in our society. To veer close to Julia Gillard’s clumsy construction at the 2011 ALP conference, the economy is us. Closing down commerce, as Mr Andrews has done, has real-life consequences for employers, workers, consumers and partners along vast supply chains. On Monday the Premier announced three new categories for business operations. Another 250,000 Victorians are likely to be stood down.

To win public consent, attain social compliance and achieve the hoped-for results, our leaders need to be straight, thorough and consistent in their dealings and communications. Trust is a two-way street. To get buy-in from Victorians for such drastic action, Mr Andrews must take responsibility for action and inaction; he must concede critical mistakes were made on his watch and promise poor testing and tracing systems are being improved. The Premier also must fully explain what he hopes to achieve and supply the evidence behind decisions. This will carry an educative function across the nation. Mr Andrews is asking a lot from Victorians so he has a duty to be more open and accountable. Lockdown 3.0 is a six-week stress test of the Premier’s competence, integrity and leadership.