Election 2025: Far from quiet for key Labor members on Sydney’s crucial western front

The MP who killed off ALP star Kristina Keneally’s political career has declared western Sydney is sick of Labor cabinet ministers who neighbour her, with the independent predicting big swings against Albanese lieutenants.

Anthony Albanese on the campaign trial in Cabramatta, southwest Sydney, in the seat of Fowler. Picture: Jason Edwards

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The MP who killed off one-time ALP star Kristina Keneally’s political career has declared western Sydney is sick of the Labor cabinet ministers who neighbour her seat, with the “canary in the coalmine” independent predicting big swings against Albanese lieutenants such as Chris Bowen.

Western Sydney, for decades the epicentre of Labor’s political base, is set to be one of the most politically volatile regions in the nation this election, with the ALP holding off significant independent campaigns in at least three seats and Peter Dutton fighting in two other nearby electorates his party must win to get close to power.

Independent Fowler MP Dai Le, whose defeat of “blow-in” former NSW premier Ms Keneally in 2022 was a rare blight on Anthony Albanese’s first-term victory, said voters were viscerally “angry” at the cost-of-living crisis and were deserting the major parties.

The Australian on Wednesday revealed polling conducted by Compass showed Energy Minister Mr Bowen potentially losing his seat of McMahon to tech millionaire independent Matthew Camenzuli, a former Liberal NSW state executive.

Ms Le, whose electorate neighbours McMahon, said she would not be surprised if Mr Bowen suffered a big loss in local support, saying her voters had had little to show for from the five Labor ministers who surrounded her seat.

“Many MPs will have to win an election … Even in seats like McMahon, there is talk about (Mr Bowen) not faring well, so there are many uncertainties,” she said.

“There are many migrant families who used to be locked in with Labor and I think they’re questioning now what (the ALP) has really delivered for the community.

Fowler incumbent Dai Le in her seat in February. Picture: Richard Dobson

“Labor have got five ministers across (wider) western Sydney and yet not one really fought for the basic infrastructure needs of this community. People see that.

“I went to a Vietnamese nail artist who told me that her customers are telling her they’re sick of the major two parties. Small businesses in our local economy are talking to one another.”

Labor is facing pro-Palestine independents in both Watson and Blaxland, which have large Muslim communities – although ALP insiders believe the chance of ministers Tony Burke and Jason Clare losing those seats has become slimmer – while the party is locked in “traditional” battles with the Liberals in Parramatta and Werriwa.

National polling has buoyed Labor that it could snare a small majority, but bookmakers believe an ALP minority government remains the most likely outcome, meaning the support of a disparate crossbench – including potentially Ms Le – has come into sharper focus.

South Australian independent Rebekha Sharkie in March told The Australian she would meet the Opposition Leader first if he could form a stable administration that would champion regional voters, and teal Warringah incumbent Zali Steggall has confirmed she was open to a deal with the Coalition.

Ms Le, defending a 1 per cent margin, said in the event of a hung parliament – if she were re-elected – her support would be given to whichever leader made a more compelling offer for Fowler.

“I’m not ringing anyone, it’s whoever rings me,” she said.

“But whoever comes to me and asks ‘what are your priorities for Fowler?’, and what they put on the table for my community in terms of investment in infrastructure (could receive support).”

September’s NSW local government elections reaffirmed belief that Labor would struggle to wrestle back Fowler, given popular Fairfield mayor Frank Carbone – a political ally of Ms Le – secured more than 80 per cent of the vote.

Tu Le with new baby Matilda and son Boston in March. Picture: Justin Lloyd.

Dai Le is being challenged by ALP candidate Tu Le, who was forced out in favour of Ms Keneally in 2022 but who believes the “strong Labor area” could return to the fold.

Hitting the pavements five weeks after the birth of her second child, Tu Le said she had been prepared for three years to contest the seat.

“The last election was really a protest vote against the party for the decisions that were made,” she said, adding that the 2022 candidate selection had come up consistently in conversations with voters.

“I think it’s important and even the Prime Minister has admitted that it was an error.

“People are telling me that they remember what happened, but now they’ve got a local mum with a growing family, who understands intimately the struggles and aspirations of fellow families here.”

Tu Le – who described herself as the underdog – echoed sentiment reverberating around divisions where Labor is taking on independents: that a seat at the table reaped more rewards for communities.

“One of the things I’m hearing is that people understand the benefit of someone … who can directly advocate to the prime minister and cabinet,” she said.

“That is what the community deserves, a strong voice in government who is able to deliver.

“I’ve asked people: ‘What has the current member been able to deliver for a local area as a federal MP?’ And no one’s actually been able to actually respond to that.”

Matthew Camenzuli, a former NSW Liberal state executive and tech millionaire, who is running in McMahon.

While serving as Fowler MP, Dai Le retained and then successfully recontested her position on Fairfield council, something her Labor opponent had sought to highlight.

“That (dual role) is a concern for voters, in terms of how the job (of being the MP) is being done,” Tu Le said.

Wednesday’s McMahon polling forecasts a tighter-than-expected battle for Mr Bowen – albeit neither ALP nor Liberal insiders believe he will lose the seat – and independent Mr Camenzuli said it reaffirmed what he was being told by voters.

“I was humbled (by the polling) … I’m certainly seeing support on the ground, but there’s much work to do,” he said, adding that the rising cost of energy dominated conversations with voters.

Mr Bowen holds McMahon with a notional post-distribution margin of about 10 per cent, but Compass’s polling showed him on 19 per cent support, behind the Liberal candidate’s 20 per cent and Mr Camenzuli’s 41 per cent.

Mr Albanese with Anne Stanley in January. Picture: Simon Bullard.

Labor believes Andrew Charlton will successfully defend a margin of about 4 per cent in Parramatta – the incumbent MP has developed close links with the area’s large South Asian diaspora – and it is Werriwa that could be the most likely ALP casualty, despite a January $1bn funding announcement for Fifteenth Ave.

Polling has incumbent Anne Stanley in a razor-thin battle to defend a 5 per cent margin against Liberal challenger Sam Kayal, making his second tilt at the seat.

State powerbrokers have become enthused by the party’s prospects in a seat held for 25 years by Labor prime minister Gough Whitlam. Mr Dutton has visited multiple times, but there is concern about how traditionally Liberal-leaning Lebanese supporters could vote.

Muslim voters make up about 16 per cent of Werriwa, with community anger surrounding the party’s rhetoric on Gaza and Mr Dutton’s handling of an apparent private apology to the diaspora for comments he made in 2016 about Lebanese Muslim migration.

Gemma Noiosi is running for the Libertarians, who polled third in the seat in 2022, while former United Australia Party candidate Jamal Daoud – an outspoken critic of the “Muslim Vote” movements – is standing as an independent on “migrant rights”.