Election 2025: Shock polling has Energy Minister Chris Bowen at risk in McMahon

Chris Bowen could lose his seat of McMahon to independent Matt Camenzuli, according to new polling, with the Energy Minister receiving just 19 per cent support.

Energy Minister Chris Bowen could lose seat of McMahon to local tech millionaire Matt Camenzuli.

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Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen is in danger of losing his western Sydney seat of McMahon to local tech millionaire Matt Camenzuli, according to independent polling showing ­power bills a top concern.

Mr Bowen holds the seat, which has always been in ALP hands, with a margin of about 10 per cent after an electoral redistribution, but Compass polling taken last weekend shows him on just 19 per cent support, well ­behind independent candidate Mr Camenzuli on 41 per cent.

Not only does the polling show Mr Bowen behind the local businessman, but also just below the Liberal support of 20 per cent.

The distribution of Liberal preferences could decide the outcome on election night.

Voters in McMahon overwhelmingly rejected the same-sex marriage plebiscite Labor ­supported in 2017, as well as the ­Indigenous voice to parliament.

Labor support in western Sydney is under pressure, with seats being directly targeted by the ­Coalition.

But Labor was dismissive of the poll on Wednesday, claiming it did not represent the electorate and that Mr Camenzuli would finish below the Liberals.

Peter Dutton was campaigning in Mr Bowen’s electorate on Wednesday with the new Liberal candidate, Carmen Lazar, who works in immigration and is a former Labor Party councillor. The cost of living was dominating discussions with voters.

Mr Bowen told The Australian that given the independent, Mr Camenzuli, was a former a Liberal Party member and that the Liberal candidate was a former Labor member: “I’m the only one with consistency.”

IT millionaire Matthew Camenzuli in Parramatta. Picture: Tim Hunter

The survey, a MMS/SMS poll with 1003 respondents by independent polling company Compass, also found that grocery costs were the biggest concern in the western Sydney suburbs, at 85 per cent followed by energy at 72 per cent.

Health (61 per cent), fuel (54 per cent) and housing (50 per cent) were the next highest priorities ­according to the poll.

Climate concerns rated at only 26 per cent and “LBGTQ” issues were the lowest nominated concern in the poll.

When the Opposition Leader was asked whether his policy of cutting immigration was a drag on Liberal support in western Sydney he said Ms Lazar’s family was an example of how migrant families added to Australia.

“I’ve said repeatedly that we are a great beneficiary of the ­migration program in our country,” he said.

“Look at Carmen’s family story, look at many other candidates that we have running at this ­election, people who have worked hard. The migrant story, particularly, I think we’ve pointed out on many occasions, of people who have come here since the Second World War period, people who have started with nothing, amassed a fortune, or people who have come here as builders and bricklayers and tilers and the rest of it.

“We are a net beneficiary of that, but I think the concentration, at the moment, is on ‘how can our migration program work best for us?’”.

Mr Camenzuli, a former Liberal NSW state executive who unsuccessfully sued former prime minister Scott Morrison over factional preselection processes at the last election, has been campaigning in McMahon since the beginning of the year.

As a local businessman and IT millionaire, Mr Camenzuli is running on a platform highlighting the cost of living and the proposed cut to the fuel excise.

“I spend a lot of time in the electorate and you see people putting food back from their trolleys, and buying smaller bags of food ­because there’s just not enough money to feed the kids,” he said at his campaign launch.