Albanese should handle any outreach from China with caution

Chinese President Xi Jinping delivering a keynote speech at the opening ceremony of the Boao Forum for Asia via video link. Picture: Getty

How long until China launches its first verbal attack on the Albanese government? I would give it about 48 hours.

Anthony Albanese’s meeting on Tuesday with the leaders of the Quad in Tokyo should trigger the usual outrage in Beijing about “Cold War mindsets”.

Days after the Quad meeting, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi is expected to visit Solomons Islands to sign a new secret security agreement. Brace for another spray about Canberra’s “colonial mentality”.

Furious party-speak diatribes will soon fill Penny Wong’s daily media briefings, as they did those of her predecessors as foreign minister, Marise Payne and Julie Bishop.

Hectoring by the Chinese Communist Party is now part of Australian public life. The end of the Morrison government won’t change that.

Senator Penny Wong is Australia’s new foreign minister. Picture David Clark

An improvement in the relationship that works for both countries is possible – indeed, the way there is obvious. At any time, Beijing can end its black-listing of Australian coal, wine, barley, lobster and other imports, previously worth about $20bn a year.

It would hardly be a selfless gift by China to Australia. Beijing’s vindictiveness has greatly increased the cost of coking coal used by Chinese steelmakers.

Similarly, China’s Foreign Minister could call his new counterpart at any time. The same with the rest of the ministry. After all, the decision to end ministerial contact was made by Beijing, not Canberra.

The final phone call between former foreign minister Marise Payne and her Chinese counterpart was on January 29. Picture: NCA Newswire/ Andrew Taylor

The final phone call came from Wang on January 29, 2020, when he assured Payne that China would “stay in close communication and co-ordination with Australia”.

No minister in the Australian government has heard from them since. Requests for calls have gone unanswered. Letters have been unacknowledged.

Days after the Quad meeting, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi is expected to visit Solomons Islands to sign a new secret security agreement.

The Department of Foreign Affairs assessed that Beijing had decided to “wait out” the Coalition. At some point, China will end its self-imposed silence.

The end of Beijing’s trade blockades and the resumption of normal dialogue would be a good thing, but the Albanese government should handle any outreach with caution.

Albanese and Wong need to be careful they do not create a terrible precedent. Beijing must not be taught that its coercive tactics against Australia can be erased with a change of government, as former Australian diplomat Hugh Piper has said.

“On China, a new government should actually do very little,” he argues in a piece for the Lowy Institute. “Remaining consistent on national security and principled positions on human rights, for example, will demonstrate to Beijing that fundamental points of sovereignty and national identity are not up for negotiation.”

It is excellent advice.

There is a whole world beyond the People’s Republic of China to busy Australia’s new government. Southeast Asia and the Pacific Islands are top of the list.

And there is the busy agenda of the Quad, whose three other member countries — America, Japan and India — all have their own China troubles.

Even if it wanted to, the Australian government would struggle to get the attention of its leader right now.

Beijing is consumed in domestic politics ahead of a political gathering in November that will give Xi Jinping his audacious third, five-year-term as leader.

At some point, Xi will turn his attention to Canberra. Australia’s new government should not feel any pressure to hurry that along.

As China’s diplomats like to say, the ball is in Beijing’s court.