Covid deaths push life expectancy down for the first time since mid-90s, ABS finds

Australia still sits among the top countries for life expectancy despite it falling for the first time since the mid-1990s due to a spate of Covid deaths in 2022.

Life expectancy in Australia has fallen for the first time since the mid-1990s, ABS data reveal. Picture: iStock

Australia has experienced its first fall in life expectancy since the mid-1990s, driven by a higher mortality rate in the second half of the Covid pandemic.

But we remain almost at the top of the international life expectancy tree, the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics data shows, sitting behind only Monaco and Japan.

Australia’s male life expectancy is second in the world, behind only Monaco, with female life expectancy sixth. Neither the US nor UK is in the top 20.

The new ABS data shows a boy born in Australia today can expect to live to 81.2 years and a girl to 85.3 years, both falling by 0.1 years in the 2020-22 period. This would mean they can expect to live into the 22nd century.

ABS head of demography Beidar Cho said the pandemic had played a part in “the first decline in life expectancy since the early 1990s.”

“This is the first time that deaths across all three years of the Covid-19 pandemic have been used in calculating life expectancy,” ABS head of demography Beidar Cho said.

“The first two years of the pandemic had the two lowest mortality rates on record from all causes, however in 2022 the number of deaths increased by 20,000, with close to 10,000 of these being due to Covid-19.”

Ms Cho said the relatively large increase in deaths did not have a larger impact on life expectancy because more than half of those who died in 2022 were people aged 80 and over. But longer-term health improvements meant the life expectancy decline was more likely to be a glitch than a long-term trend.

Treasury’s latest Intergenerational Report in August projects longer-term life expectancy to continue to rise, but more slowly across the coming decades.

Baby boys born in 2063 could expect to live to 87 and baby girls to 89.5, it says.

The ABS data shows that at the time of his birth in 1947 a baby boy was expected to live to 2013. Now he is expected to live to 2035.

A boy born in 1966 had a life expectancy of 67.6, while he is now expected to live to 84.

A girl born in 1954 was expected to die in 2027. She can now expect to live to 2042.

Both on long-term trend lines, and internationally, Australia is among the world life expectancy leaders, the data shows.

“Despite slightly lower life expectancy in Australia, it’s still higher than before the pandemic and continues to be one of the highest in the world, ranked third behind Monaco and Japan according to United Nations estimates,” Ms Cho said.

The ACT fared best in Australia, with life expectancy at 82.2 years for males and 86.0 years for females, while the Northern Territory had the lowest life expectancy, 76.2 years for males and 80.7 years for females. But the NT is closing the gap, with a gains of 7.9 years for men and 8.2 years for women across the last 30 years.

Life expectancy decreased across all states and territories for females, and decreased for males in South Australia, Western Australia and Tasmania, with other jurisdictions having no change.