China leapfrogs US on Asian military posture
China has surpassed the US in its ability to deploy rapidly and sustain military forces in the event of a regional conflict, new analysis warns.
China has surpassed the US in its ability to deploy rapidly and sustain military forces in the event of a regional conflict, new analysis warns, fuelling concerns about Beijing’s ability to seize Taiwan by force.
The Lowy Institute’s new Asia Power Index report shows China for the first time beating the US on its measure of the nations’ military postures.
While the US remains the region’s most powerful nation, the annual analysis suggests its military capability has fallen relative to China, which operates the largest navy and has invested heavily in new missiles and drones.
The think tank cautioned that China’s People’s Liberation Army had “enduring deficiencies, especially in terms of long-range power projection”, and lacked the US’s extensive network of regional allies.
“Even so, the 2024 Asia Power Index shows China beating the United States for the first time in the Asian military posture sub-measure, an expert assessment of countries’ ability to deploy rapidly and for a sustained period in the event of an interstate conflict in Asia,” it said.
“This finding suggests that although China will not exceed the United States in terms of overall military capability for the foreseeable future, that may not be needed to achieve its strategic objectives in East Asia, including with respect to Taiwan and the South China Sea.”
The US retained its position as the region’s most powerful nation, reflecting the superpower’s “enduring strength”.
China came in second place amid slowing economic growth and reduced inbound investment.
“China’s power is neither surging nor collapsing. It is plateauing at a level below that of the United States, but still well above any Asian competitors,” the report says.
Australia supplanted Russia as the region’s fifth most powerful nation, after India and Japan.
“Australia continues to rise up the Asia Power Index rankings as others falter, but its own power is just holding steady,” the institute found.
It said Australia was marked down on the resilience of its resources trade, amid a blow to energy exports and disappointing rare earths sales.
But the country’s staying power contradicted more pessimistic forecasts that the nation “will become a smaller and less relevant player as other much larger economies rise”.
In the biggest change to the index this year, India overtook Japan to be ranked the region’s third most powerful nation.
“India’s great strength in Asia is the resources it brings from its huge population, landmass and economy – already the world’s third-largest in terms of purchasing power parity,” the report says.
It says the country’s diplomatic influence has risen since the previous survey, suggesting India’s non-aligned status has “modestly benefited its global standing”, but its economic relationships remain weak.
Japan was marked down on its economic performance, reflecting an erosion in its technological advantages over rival manufacturing nations South Korea, China and Taiwan.
But its score was bolstered by the country’s defence ties, including a “massive ramp-up” in joint exercises with the US. The allies’ defence relationship is “far outstripping any other defence pairing in the region”, the report says.
China’s has stepped up military drills across the Taiwan Strait since the self-governed territory’s President Lai Ching-te took office in May.
Taiwan has registered a record 2076 PLA incursions into its air defence identification zone this year, prompting warnings that signs of a real invasion might be difficult to spot.
Taiwan’s Defence Minister Wellington Koo said the territory needed to prepare for “a potential sudden contingency”.
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