Norris, Verstappen and Piastri face off in three-way F1 title decider but the Aussie’s a long shot
Three into one won’t go
For the first time since Vettel, Alonso and Webber in 2010 we’ve got a proper three-way title decider. After 23 races and six sprints, the maths is brutal. Leaping Lando leads on 408 points, Mad Max sits on 396 and our bloke Oscar lurks on 392.
Twelve points cover LL and MM, 16 cover the lot. On paper it’s advantage Norris. In reality, history says the leader going into a three-way finale usually gets done like last week’s prawn salad. Since 1970 there have been six final-race, three-horse title fights – and only once has the bloke in front on points walked away as champion.
So, if you’re Lando, don’t read the stats.
What does Mad Max say
Max spoke exclusively to us via the psychic internet and the F1 website.
JC clone: “Max, would going into 2026 as a five-time world champion with the number one still on your car be your greatest achievement?”
MM: “Five is better than four.”
JC clone: “Do you let yourself think about it all?”
MM: “Listen Johnny, if it doesn’t happen, it’s not going to change my life. Fine, great if I win another one but we have to be realistic. We are in this fight still because of other people’s failures. If you look at the whole of the season we have maximised pretty much all races. But if we had a dominant car like they had, the championship would have been over a long time ago.
The sofa summit
The tension began before anyone turned a wheel. The FIA dumped Norris, Verstappen and Piastri on the same couch for the Thursday press conference and they were three title contenders wedged together like a family therapy session.
Norris looked tighter. He’s never been this close to the big trophy. Piastri sat there with his usual poker face, saying the right things but clearly doing the maths in his head about what “team player” really means.
Because that’s the real story: team orders. McLaren insists there won’t be any nonsense after the start unless Oscar is clearly out of contention in the final stint. At that point, it will do whatever it takes to make sure someone in papaya leaves Abu Dhabi with the big silverware – even if it means swapping cars.
George Russell couldn’t resist stirring the pot, suggesting Piastri should “unplug his radio” if anyone even hints at moving over.
Who the bookies love
The odds tell you everything about how weird this finale is.
The bookies have Max favourite to win the race; he’s the shortest price to take the flag on Sunday.
But for the championship, they have Norris as the clear favourite. He doesn’t need to win. If Max wins, Lando just has to finish on the podium to take the title. A fourth place with Max winning probably hands Verstappen a fifth straight crown on points or tie-break.
Piastri? He’s the long shot. To win the title he basically needs to win the race and for both Norris and Verstappen to have a shocker. It’s not impossible and the pressure dynamic helps him. Norris has everything to lose, Max has his legacy on the line and Oscar can swing for the fences.
The ghost of 2021
So, who wins?
Head says Verstappen takes the race. He’s been the best operator under pressure for years and smells blood whenever the others wobble. Heart (and half of Australia) says Piastri pulls something ridiculous. Logic says Norris does just enough – a safe, slightly dull, third place while Max wins but can’t dig himself fully out of the earlier points hole.
Speedo cafes
Back in the real world, if you’re buying second-hand in South Australia, be very careful where your potential bargain has been spending its evenings.
Private sellers are quietly taking cars to the speedo cafe for a little digital Botox: 150,000km becomes 80,000km, the logbooks mysteriously vanish and suddenly that “one careful owner” looks more like three Ubers and a mining contractor.
Rule of thumb: if the mileage doesn’t match the tyres, the pedals or the service history, walk away. Or at least budget for the truth.
Even buying new doesn’t save you from grief. One of my two friends bought a brand-new Mercedes S-Class.
It was off the road within a fortnight with quality issues. Parts had to come from Singapore, which took longer than it did for Max to win his second title. Prestige badge, prestige headache.
Meanwhile at one of my favourite car companies, our own newlywed Albo has ordered a recall of the 16 quaintly named 2023 Bentley Bentayga Hybrid in Oz.
Albo says that “due to a hardware defect, the high-voltage battery may discharge while charging the vehicle.
“If this occurs, it could overheat leading to a vehicle fire which could increase the risk of injury or death to vehicle occupants, other road users and bystanders videoing for Tik Tok.”
EV range tests
The Australian Automobile Association has dropped a new batch of real-world EV range tests, and – surprise, surprise – those big numbers on the windscreen stickers are about as reliable as a used-car odometer in the speedo cafe.
In the latest round, four EVs delivered between 3 per cent and 31 per cent less range on the road than in the lab. The not-so-good news for MG was its MG4 2023 was off by roughly 31 per cent, and its real-world range was a long way south of the brochure promise.
Awkward left turn
Across the Pacific, our friends at Waymo have cornered the robotaxi market – driverless rides in five US cities and counting – but the system still has all the social awareness of a shopping trolley.
The latest example was a Waymo Jaguar I-Pace trundling through downtown LA during an armed police take-down. LAPD had a car-chase suspect lying facedown on the bitumen at gunpoint. The robotaxi calmly indicated, rolled up, and glided past the suspect like it was looking for a park at Westfield. The cops were waving, the suspect on the ground, and the AV brain was apparently thinking “road clear, proceed”.
Your own racetrack
It’s nearly Chrissie (and all the other festivals) so ignore the kiddies and buy yourself what you’ve always wanted. A racetrack. Steve Shelley’s Pheasant Wood Circuit near Goulburn is on the market. For the price of a Sydney carport and a half-decent EV, you can grab yourself 1.6km of Motorsport Australia-licensed playground plus all the trimmings. It’s a steal at $14m to $16m.
And remember, our weekly (mainly) newsletter is still free – and worth every cent. Email me to join the other six subscribers.
jc@jcp.com.au
More Coverage
Yes, 20 readers it’s the decider in the desert; the showdown in the desert; season-ending showdown in the desert; the duel in the desert; the desert showdown; the desert battleground; the three-way in the desert (naughty but accurate); the desert storm: Norris, Max, Oscar and one trophy and last light in the desert: one race, three blokes, one broken country and other great cliches.