Quietly, carefully, Federal Opposition Leader Peter Dutton starts to find his voice

The Opposition Leader has had an awakening — and has begun to assert himself as Labor’s agenda loses its gloss.

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton on his feet in the House of Representatives at Parliament House in Canberra.

Peter Dutton is on the move. After a relatively quiet first nine months as Opposition Leader – during which he has been accused of not doing enough, not making ground against Anthony Albanese, not reforming the Liberal Party, being too negative and not taking definite policy and political positions – Dutton is asserting himself.

Economic management, the cost of living and mortgage stress are the Coalition’s focus in parliament and politics as the Albanese government scrambles to battle rising inflation, rising unemployment, rising interest rates, increased energy costs and food prices. But Labor’s cultural agenda on the Indigenous voice to parliament, discrimination in schools, border protection and climate change also is losing its gloss as the government moves too quickly on too many fronts.

Dutton’s deliberate awakening is being assisted by a change in this political momentum as well as unlikely alliances that are bringing the young Labor government to earth and altering the strategic balance. By the time of the May budget, and probably after at least one more interest rate rise, Labor’s shifting of blame to the previous government and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will begin to wear thin.

Indeed, it is already as cost-of-living pressures are at the top of mind for everyone.

Albanese’s election night promise of a referendum for an Indigenous voice also is showing dangerous signs of losing support, with Labor facing criticism for not caring about the cost pressures on all households.

What is worse for the Prime Minister, and highly advantageous to the Opposition Leader, is that Labor’s key legislative agenda – including centrepiece promises on manufacturing, climate change and housing – are facing a joint Coalition-Greens blockade in the Senate.

Albanese’s political response has been to revive the previous attacks on the Coalition as being too negative and a “No-alition” that should just “get out of the way”. The attack on the Greens is that they just “don’t understand the economy” and want to go back to the climate wars when the same Greens-Coalition alliance defeated Kevin Rudd’s 2009 carbon emissions plan.

In some ways Dutton hasn’t had to do much to start to assert himselfPicture: NCA NewsWire / Martin Ollman

Yet mixed messages about fighting inflation while still promising to spend more than the previous government, committing to new coal and gas projects while decarbonising the economy, and delaying relief for low-income households from skyrocketing energy bills are making the government look rattled.

What’s more, the Indigenous voice to parliament is being mired in confusion as Labor MPs have to concentrate on the economy, can’t answer questions on detail, backtrack on positions, face demands to address practical issues affecting disadvantaged Indigenous Australians and are being forced to consider compromises.

Albanese has stopped talking about the growing momentum of support for the voice as more polling emerges suggesting public support is soft.

In some ways Dutton hasn’t had to do much to start to assert himself and he has been able to reap the political benefits of Greens-Labor animosity, a worsening economic outlook and growing suspicion about Labor’s cultural agenda.

Some of the criticism aimed at Dutton comes from Coalition supporters who say he hasn’t been strong enough on traditional conservative issues or damaged Albanese’s standing and will be blamed should the voice referendum fail.

The last point is a political argument Albanese promotes as he seeks to force Dutton into a declaration on the voice. The Prime Minister maintains Liberal opposition to the voice, if the referendum passes, will demonstrate Dutton’s irrelevance, and if it fails while the Liberals are opposed he will be to blame.

Albanese’s argument has weakened as Dutton did not rule out supporting the Yes case immediately and instead has called for details, asked questions and argued for a demonstration of practical help to “the women and children” in crisis in Alice Springs.

Dutton is moving towards a position on the voice to parliament; he is prepared to offer a compromise to Albanese as it becomes increasingly apparent the referendum will fail without bipartisan support and it puts him in a position of growing political strength. He recognises the Liberals can’t put off a decision forever and that most of the opposition to the voice in the public is overwhelmingly Coalition supporters.

Dutton is pursuing the argument that just wanting more detail on how the voice would work is not being racist or hard-heartedPicture: NCA NewsWire / Gary Ramage

Albanese wants to baulk Dutton into a commitment – one way or the other – but the political preference is for the Liberals to oppose the voice. Although this view is becoming less certain as Labor MPs begin to feel the loss of support and fear the disaster of a humiliating defeat as well as a setback to reconciliation.

As Dutton tells Inquirer: “The Coalition isn’t bullied into any position by an increasingly desperate Prime Minister. We will make our own decisions based on what’s right for our country.

“I want to see practical outcomes and an improvement in safety for Indigenous people, not another bureaucracy. We are open to a discussion with the government, but the PM refusing to negotiate or give details makes it very hard to see how his voice could succeed.”

The options for compromise or co-operation with Albanese from the Liberals include changing the wording of the referendum question to make the voice to parliament less extensive and more precise; deferring the referendum to allow a full debate; and a legislated voice.

Only a changing of the wording – with divisions already appearing on the consultative committee over whether executive government should be included – is the option likely to receive any sympathetic consideration from Albanese.

In the past two weeks of parliament the Coalition has asked only one question on the voice and Albanese’s response confirmed a backdown on information policies and an offer of a new form of committee to examine the referendum machinery.

Dutton is pursuing the argument that just wanting more detail on how the voice would work is not being racist or hard-hearted; there have to be practical outcomes and the government must “get it right”.

“Australians aren’t hard-hearted, as the Prime Minister suggests, when they ask for basic detail on the voice,” he tells Inquirer. “We want the detail because we want a model that addresses the practical and immediate need of Indigenous kids in Alice Springs and beyond. I want a better life for Indigenous Australians, not another layer of bureaucracy.

“The PM was elected to fix problems, not constantly complain about them. We have demonstrated we will back the government where they get it right but we will side with Australians when Mr Albanese gets it wrong.”

This is a change of position from Dutton on the voice, just as Albanese changed his approach last week, but the Opposition Leader’s shift has the advantage not being forced on him and with the possibility of withholding support if the changes do not go far enough.

Dutton also has been able to exploit the Australian Law Reform Commission’s aggressive progressive proposal to limit religious schools’ ability to preference teachers of their faith when hiring. There are millions of students and parents involved in faith-based schools and even those who are not particularly religious pay for the right to be at a school with a certain ethos – and in increasing numbers.

Labor’s changes to temporary protection visas are another gimme for Dutton, who only has to wait and watch as the “surge” of the Australian Navy to the north tries to ensure any asylum-seeker boats are intercepted.

A lot of this has fallen in Dutton’s lap but his patience – frustrating some allies who want more action – is paying dividends as he faces a tough by-election test in the Melbourne seat of Aston.

Yet again the seat of Aston is an opportunity for Labor, but already it is playing down the chances of victory, just as it walked away from claims inflation had peaked.

Dutton can’t ride the momentum forever, but knowing when to take off after the right wave is proving a winner in itself.