Peter Dutton facing a critical test, with odds stacked against him

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton in Canberra. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Gary Ramage

Peter Dutton is facing his most critical test as Opposition Leader.

It is a simple but central proposition: can the Liberal Party hold a mortgage belt seat in a mortgage “hell” environment, in a state in which the party and its leader is least popular?

A by-election in the federal seat of Aston is high risk stakes for Dutton, considering the post-election review that confirmed the basket case status of the Victorian division.

The resignation of one of the federal party’s most capable, albeit politically damaged, frontbenchers in Alan Tudge, will come as a shock to no one.

It certainly comes as no surprise to Dutton, who has known about Tudge’s intentions since the start of the year.

Tudge alludes to the high price he and his family have paid for his personal mistakes.

Nevertheless, his departure marks a significant loss of intellectual ballast from an already reedy Coalition line-up.

More acutely, it presents a potentially hazardous by-election that is in no way a guaranteed win. The Liberal Party holds Tudge’s seat of Aston in Melbourne’s eastern suburbs by 2.8 per cent.

It’s a tradies, skills-based blue collar seat that voted strongly for John Howard and for Tony Abbott. If there was a seat to be subjected to a by-election, you’d expect the Liberals to do well in it.

The last by-election comparison was in 2001. Cost of living and petrol prices were key issues, and Kim Beazley was on a high. The Liberals, which then were in government, looked like they were behind but won. Fundamentally, it’s a Liberal seat.

Yet the fundamentals changed in 2022. There was a 7 per cent swing against the Morrison government on the back of an increased Chinese Australian vote, a general anti-Morrison rising tide and because of Tudge and his personal issues. Labor also did well in the local seat in the state election.

There remains a general sense that the Liberal Party is on the nose in Victoria.

The key fundamental that is similar is cost of living is again the key issue, with the Albanese government facing a potential political backlash from rising interest rates and the cost-of-living impact in a seat where it will be felt more acutely than many others.

If the Liberals lose, it will not be deeply worrying for Dutton and the Liberal Party.

It will be dis­astrous.

It will show that national polls, reflecting a dominant Labor government under Albanese, don’t necessarily represent the nadir for the Dutton Coalition.

For Anthony Albanese, it is a case of nothing to lose and everything to gain. A victory would not only bolster his slim majority in parliament but reflect a broader political defeat of the conservative alternative.

Josh Frydenberg has ruled out running, which will be a relief for Dutton. And why would he?

Teal independent Monique Ryan is making the potential return of the former treasurer to his lost seat of Kooyong more attractive by the day. Should he run and win in Aston, Dutton would then face an almost immediate leadership challenge.

Another candidate spoken of in Liberal circles, former Abbott chief of staff and Sky News presenter Peta Credlin, is apparently ruling herself out of the mix.

This then becomes a test for the Victorian branch, which following the review of the federal election loss was chief protagonist in the factional and cultural decay of the Liberal Party.

If the state executive thinks it can step in and override a local preselection, the seat is gone.

Again, this presents a challenge for Dutton, who will have to stomp on any signs of a factional fight over this seat.

Compounding the problem of the Liberals being absent of an ­obvious replacement candidate for Tudge is the fact that the Victorian division is without a state director.

Tudge’s resignation, while understandable, is very bad timing for Dutton.