A by-election in the Melbourne seat of Aston carries momentous weight in political history and an equally momentous current challenge for Peter Dutton and Anthony Albanese.
For the Liberal Opposition Leader it will be a must-win by-election in a seat where the outgoing Alan Tudge struggled at the 2022 election and where State Liberals had trouble in the Victorian election.
Dutton needs a victory to demonstrate an arrest in the slide of Coalition support in Melbourne, where votes have bled to Labor and progressive independents, and to have a win in his first, and so early, electoral test as Liberal leader.
The Prime Minister is under less pressure than Dutton for a win but, as was the case in the last by-election in 2001, there will be expectations that Labor can build on its victory last year as Albanese’s polling soars above Dutton.
There is the added lure for Albanese in being able to add one more seat to his slimmest majority of just one and move two heart beats away from minority government.
In 2001 the last Aston by-election – sparked by the death of Liberal MP Peter Nugent – was seen as a test for John Howard, weighed down by a new Goods and Service Tax, and a grand opportunity for Labor leader Kim Beazley riding high in the polls.
The Howard Government had lost the previous safe seat of Ryan in Queensland and the result in the Aston by-election was seen as a firm indication of the result of the upcoming federal election.
While the next election is not expected until mid-2025 the result of the by-election, whenever it is held, will have an enormous impact on the political psychology of Labor and Coalition MPs as well as the standing and authority of Dutton and Albanese.
In 2001 Labor even unveiled its education policy as part of an all-out attempt to repeat the Ryan by-election victory and build momentum going into the election campaign.
As was the case in 2001, when there was factional and sentimental support for the widow of Peter Nugent, there is, already, a rush of factional suggestions for who should be selected to run, including high profile Liberals.
But, as was the case in 2001, it is more likely a tough-minded decision will be taken to put up the best local candidate in a seat with a margin of just 2.8 per cent.
After the surprise Liberal victory in the Aston by-election John Howard declared that if the momentum was with labor they would “have rolled over us” in Aston and described the winner, Chris Pearce, as the “hero of Aston”.
Howard went on to retain government in the November election.
The 2023 by-election won’t have as an immediate effect on political fortunes but it will be as important.
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