With some European officials calling for peace talks, the risk is that Russia’s invasion will be legitimised, and US and Western credibility will be diminished.
When President Volodymyr Zelensky rejected US overtures to be evacuated and instead asked for military support last year, the US, NATO and Western allies were somewhat hesitant to offer critical aid. But since then it is estimated that North American and European countries have provided $US120bn ($178.8bn) in support, with the price tag growing.
There were doubts in the West that Ukraine could resist a full-throated Russian invasion for long without US and NATO soldiers on the ground. And there were valid reasons for not committing troops because it might have escalated quickly into a nuclear conflict, with an unpredictable and irrational Russian President Vladimir Putin doing the unthinkable.
When, last week, Putin announced he would be suspending Russia’s participation in the New START treaty, it signalled the nuclear threat had not subsided. New START is the only agreement on arms control between Russia and the US. While Putin is not withdrawing from the treaty and Russian officials downplayed the prospect of deploying nuclear weapons, there are fears it could lead to a new arms race.
The Russia-Ukraine war is an ongoing test for the West. It is imperative that the US, NATO and allies and partners such as Australia continue to do all they can to support Ukraine. Much is at stake.
With so much rhetoric matched with arms, now is not the time to retreat. If Putin is allowed to conquer Ukraine, the damage to US and NATO credibility will be irreparable. That is why it was so critical that US President Joe Biden visited Kyiv last week.
“One year later, Kyiv stands,” Biden said. “Ukraine stands. Democracy stands.”
It was an extraordinary moment as the two presidents, Zelensky and Biden, walked the streets of a defiant Ukraine in the middle of a war. Biden is now, more than ever, personally invested in this conflict and so is US prestige.
It is not hard to imagine Ukraine being left to fend for itself if Donald Trump had won the 2020 US presidential election. Trump was eager to withdraw the US from NATO, former national security adviser John Bolton revealed. The former president routinely had trashed historic alliances and partnerships, and downgraded US global leadership. Even now, as evidenced in last year’s midterm elections, some Republicans have called for the US to stop arming Ukraine.
The growing doubt that Ukraine can repel Russia successfully and reclaim territory reportedly has prompted British, French and German officials to suggest that Zelensky engage in peace talks with Russia. The critical idea being canvassed is a NATO security guarantee for Ukraine with, presumably, Russia retreating to its pre-invasion territory.
Former US secretary of state Henry Kissinger, a master of realpolitik, has suggested the conflict in Ukraine could cease with Russia returning to the status quo before the current war began, with Crimea annexed and Donetsk and Luhansk controlled by Russian separatists.
When I interviewed Kissinger last year, he affirmed his view that this was a viable pathway to ending the conflict.
In any event, Biden does not seem eager to press Zelensky to the negotiating table. Indeed, his visit to Kyiv sends the opposite message. Moreover, Biden announced an increase in US military aid with a further $US2bn commitment. Biden has been unyielding in supporting Zelensky’s call to continue to resist Russian aggression, whatever the cost.
Australian ambassador to the US Arthur Sinodinos told me last week that the war was and remained a critical test for the West. Putin thought the West was fragmented and divided, and the US had walked away from its global leadership role.
Sinodinos praised Biden for strengthening alliances and uniting the West to help Ukraine resist Russia’s invasion.
“The invasion was a moment of great moral clarity for the West because it really dramatised the stakes,” Sinodinos said. “Where does the global rules-based order go after this? What is the precedent that is being set for other conflicts, other situations? So, it was vital that the West respond.”
That is why former British prime minister Boris Johnson and US senator Lindsey Graham were right to call for more military support for Ukraine. “We must accelerate Western support for the Ukrainians and give them what they need to finish the job,” they wrote in The Wall Street Journal. “By ensuring Ukraine wins and Putin finally falls, we are making the best and most financially efficient investment in the long-term security … of the whole world.”
This fight is not yet won. Indeed, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said China was considering providing military aid to Russia, even though Beijing offered its own plan for peace last week. Russia also reportedly is looking to North Korea and Iran to bolster its depleted supply of munitions. This would be a dangerous step.
No wonder the calls for a negotiated peace settlement are increasing. But any peace plan that included ceding Ukrainian sovereign territory to Russia is a line the US, NATO and its allies should not cross. This would serve to validate Russian aggression and signal to dictators and autocrats that Western words and weapons count for little in the end.
When Zelensky addressed the Australian parliament last year, he was warmly welcomed. Anthony Albanese has called the invasion “illegal and immoral”, and urged Russia to withdraw from all Ukrainian territory. We have provided military aid to Ukraine and imposed sanctions on Russia. Australia should continue its unwavering support for Ukraine by reopening our embassy in Kyiv.
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