Republican tyro JD Vance won because he looked the presidential goods

US Senator and Republican vice-presidential candidate JD Vance, left, and Minnesota Governor and Democratic vice-presidential candidate Tim Walz participate in a debate hosted by CBS News. Picture: AFP

Both JD Vance and Tim Walz had a successful debate night. I think Vance came out ahead, but there were no knockout blows.

Vance seemed sharper and had better lines, although Walz had some good lines too. Vance was obviously quicker mentally, lighter on his feet, more nimble. But no one planning to vote for Kamala Harris and Tim Walz would be appalled or repelled by Walz.

Both men came across as nice guys.

One really attractive element of the debate was the civility and plain kindness of both men. Democratic politics is really much better when it’s carried out in this register. Both sides of politics in America, as in most nations, contribute to the poison. Both sides can do much better. The two candidates mingled and chatted afterwards. Vance promised that, should he lose, he would offer prayers, good wishes and help where possible to Walz.

Is it really impossible that politics could be like this more often?

This debate probably won’t change the election contest much, but it was a big night for Vance, and possibly therefore for American political history.

Vance emerged as a commanding and effective figure at the very height of American politics.

I thought Vance was a sub-­optimal choice as Donald Trump’s running mate, but as the campaign has gone on he has become a much more formidable, sharp, unflustered, across an astonishing amount of detail, and easily able to parry Democrat and media attacks.

Whatever happens in this debate, Vance has emerged as a key player in American politics. Like the other candidates, he has changed position over the years on a few issues. It seems with him an evolution. But above all, Vance in this debate looked presidential.

Walz seemed to struggle to remember his attack lines and even his facts. He looked in acute discomfort in his answer on the Middle East. Bizarrely, there was not a single question about Ukraine.

Vance had very good attack lines on illegal immigration, inflation, energy policy. He won the debate hands down on those issues.

And those are the issues that are of critical importance to American voters. Vance had a narrower but still clear win on housing and trade. Walz was very strong on the Democrat position on abortion which, to the distress of conservatives, is widely supported by Americans. He also prosecuted the case effectively against Trump’s refusal to accept the result of the 2020 election. Vance pretty much played a dead bat to that. Walz was clumsy on healthcare, but still emerged, I think, the winner on that issue.

Vance and Walz shake hands after the debate. Picture: Getty Images

So each candidate was best, understandably, on the issues most important to their base voters. Vance repeatedly and effectively referred to the record of the past 3½ years as the Harris administration, or the Harris policies. Vance in fact prosecuted the case far more effectively than Trump did in his debate against Harris.

One truly weird aspect of this election is that both Harris and Walz, the alleged champions of real democracy, do almost no unscripted interviews. Trump and Vance do them all the time.

It’s widely speculated that Harris didn’t choose Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro as her running mate because he is pro-Israel and, incidentally, Jewish, and the Democratic Party, like most centre left parties in the West, has a huge anti-Israel section.

Pennsylvania is emerging more and more as the critical battleground state. It’s very difficult, though still possible, for either candidate to win the presidency without winning Pennsylvania. A couple of weeks ago, the RealClearPolitics electoral map with no toss-up states gave the Electoral College to Trump. Last week, it gave the college to Harris. At the time of writing, the RCP electoral map is back with Trump, giving him the college by 281 to 257.

It gets to that result by giving most of the battleground states to Trump, who is leading by wafer thin margins, as small as 0.1 per cent in some cases. What that really means is that the race is desperately tight and impossible to predict on the basis of the polls.

Which means that this vice presidential debate was more important than usual. I think Vance won, but the actual effect on voters will be minimal. Nonetheless, in a race as potentially tight as this, even minimal changes could be decisive.