Tasmania is set for an uber-minority Liberal government, after Labor decided it was all too messy.
On Saturday night, Rebeca White held out hope of a grand coalition led by Labor. Overnight, she was rolled by her party, whose administrative committee formally admitted defeat.
Few in Labor – aside from White – thought a government of 10 MPs, relying on the Greens and Lambies, or Greens and independents, could work.
While it had a pathway to government, after 10 years in the wilderness, most in Labor believed it would be dysfunctional and ultimately damage the brand.
Better to walk away, let Rockliff and the Liberals make a mess of it and hopefully build for a better scenario when the minority government inevitably falls.
White, after leading the party to three consecutive election losses and a primary vote stuck under 30 per cent, knew this was her last chance at being premier.
She will not survive as leader. Once the count is done and the PLP meets, the party will replace her, mostly likely with Josh Willie or Dean Winter.
Rockliff – who triggered this early poll because he couldn’t deal with two former Liberal MPs – now faces having to line up the JLN and two left-leaning independents to support his out-numbered and unloved uber-minority.
As well, he now has arch conservative Eric Abetz breathing down his neck, challenging policy and – according to party insiders – on a mission to put Rockliff and his fellow moderates back in their box.
Sound like fun? Rocky insists he’s up for it, but you have to wonder whether the call of the family farm will grow louder as the weeks and months of turmoil – within the party room and on the floor of the Assembly – unfold.
With a likely 15 out of 35 seats, the new government is going to have to ask for permission to go to the toilet. Passing legislation will require either a crossbench committee or pity from Labor.
Rockliff on Sunday insisted he would not give up his policies to win crossbench support. He still doesn’t get it. He won’t implement anything without their, or Labor’s, say so. Building an AFL stadium? Good luck.
Rocky declared that in negotiations with the new crossbenchers he would be “open to listening to new ideas”: code for agreeing to fund pet projects or back legislative change in return for support.
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