Trump’s crass Ukraine sellout strengthens our foes
And that’s what’s finally come to pass; he has given Ukraine till Thursday to accept the terms agreed between his representative and the Kremlin’s: Ukraine to hand over to the Russians the unconquered parts of Luhansk and Donetsk, accept limitations on the size of its army and the nature of its armaments, and never to join NATO or to host friendly foreign troops on its soil.
Plus, Russia is to be readmitted to the G8, effectively to be welcomed back into the ranks of “respectable” nations, from which it was expelled after its earlier aggression against Ukraine in 2014, despite its nightly terror attacks on Ukraine’s cities.
As the former NATO secretary-general has said, this would not be a peace but a pause: a pause for the Russian tyrant to rebuild his forces, recruit more quislings inside Ukraine, and refine his grey zone aggressions against the free countries of Europe, before finding some new pretext to complete his conquest; perhaps, to save Trump’s blushes, after the President has left office.
It’s crystal clear that none of Vladimir Putin’s promises are worth the paper they’re written on. Let’s not forget that the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, the security assurances given to Ukraine in return for sacrificing its share of the old Soviet nuclear arsenal, were almost identical to the security “guarantees” envisaged under the Trump deal.
The only security guarantee that would really count to deter further Russian aggression against its neighbour is the presence in Ukraine of allied troops – and that’s the key measure the Trump deal disallows.
What kept the peace in Europe since the end of World War II was not the provisions of treaties or the words of leaders but the presence on the Soviet bloc’s borders of powerful American, British and French forces that made any Russian thrust into its neighbours virtual suicide.
The Russian leadership knew that it couldn’t swallow weaker neighbours one by one but would have to fight from the start a strong democratic alliance. Likewise, it’s only the presence of American troops on the Korean Peninsula, with back-up forces in Japan, that has guaranteed the peace there. The countries on Russia’s western borders have not subsequently sought to join NATO because of some hostile intent but because they knew from bitter experience that it was only the certainty of mutual self-help that would keep them safe.
There’s more than a whiff of Munich about the planned sellout of Ukraine. Czechoslovakia, remember, had a security guarantee from the French. Hitler, on the pretext of the mistreatment of the German minority there, demanded the surrender of the Sudetenland, and the effective demilitarisation of his target.
Unwilling to risk war, Britain and France forced the Czechs to accede, only to see the rest of the country gobbled up by Germany six months later, and war break out within a year. There is at least this, though, to be said for Munich: Neville Chamberlain began Britain’s rearmament at breakneck speed; and Britain and France were not expecting some financial pay-off for themselves from betraying their ally.
All that’s certain from this crass sellout of a brave people, should it eventuate, is that it will mightily encourage Beijing to accelerate its plans to seize free and practically independent Taiwan, perhaps during the 2028 US election campaign when the leader of the free world will be maximally distracted.
The global order that’s existed since 1945 has rested on the readiness of the United States and its allies to fight for each other should any of them be attacked.
Underlying this has been the moral conviction that freedom was worth fighting for, because the life of a slave was hardly worth living. It was best expressed by president John F. Kennedy, who said, in his inaugural address, that the United States “shall pay any price, bear any burden, meet any hardship, support any friend, (and) oppose any foe to assure the survival and success of liberty”.
With America as a benign global policeman, pre-pandemic, pre-Ukraine and pre-October 7, the world was more free, more safe, more fair and more rich for more people than ever before in history.
Regrettably, that version of the Pax Americana is now over. China, in particular, has taken advantage of globalisation to make itself the near equal of the United States, economically and militarily, declaring its determination to be the global hegemon by 2049, and it has now formed an alliance of convenience with other predator nations determined to overthrow the “decadent and declining” West.
Trump’s America will still intervene to help its friends (by bombing Iran’s nuclear facilities, for instance, once Israel had effectively neutralised the Iranian air defences) but it won’t take major risks unless it’s sure its own vital interests are at stake.
Perhaps that’s simply pragmatic self-interest reasserting itself against a bogus liberal internationalism, but it’s very bad news for all the allies (Australia included) who have relied on the United States to keep the world safe and free.
Trump was right when he castigated America’s European partners for not raising defence spending. But they thought he was simply demanding they do their fair share for the defence of Europe. What they haven’t quite grasped is that he wants the defence of Europe to be solely Europe’s business, not America’s; because the MAGA movement thinks that America has been fighting other people’s wars for too long, with little gratitude and no reward.
Back in March, British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said Britain and France would lead a stabilisation force in Ukraine to keep the peace once there was a ceasefire. The only ceasefire Ukraine could honourably accept is one that gave it lasting security, and the only ceasefire Putin would respect is one guaranteed by allied troops.
That’s why Britain and France – if they’re still countries to be taken seriously – should back Ukraine in refusing Trump’s deal and make it clear that Ukraine should not be expected to surrender any more of its territory unless its armed forces are pulling back to a line that’s also held by allied troops.
Because Australia’s role has always been to help our allies to build a more just world, and because it’s clearly in our national interest that the world turn more on right and less on might, Anthony Albanese should consider offering to Britain Australia’s military help.
Perhaps that might remind a transactional President that a nation’s freedom should always take priority over a self-aggrandising “deal” or baubles such as the Nobel Peace prize.
Tony Abbott was prime minister from 2013 to 2015.
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