Proposed Russian-Ukraine peace plan to do little for appeasement

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio says ending the war in Ukraine, which is approaching its fourth year, will require an exchange of “serious and realistic ideas”, with both sides accepting tough concessions. It also needs a better plan than the 28-point draft proposal developed without Ukrainian involvement by Donald Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, and Russian officials that surfaced this week. That blueprint demands that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky make giant territorial, security, military and political concessions to Moscow. For now Mr Zelensky is playing it cool, insisting he will work with the Trump administration to find a workable solution. He is expected to meet Mr Trump as early as the weekend. As Cameron Stewart writes, Mr Zelensky holding his fire and brimstone shows how much he has learned about dealing with the US President.

The draft is a nonstarter and needs significant reworking to such an extent that it is essentially pointless and will do nothing to stop a war that has cost hundreds of thousands of lives on both sides. The draft understandably has alarmed European nations for rewarding the invasion of a neighbour by Russian dictator Vladimir Putin. And it would do nothing to deter further Russian territorial ambitions, to the detriment of the West and international strategic balance.

Not only does the plan envisage freezing the current frontlines in the war but also handing all of the eastern Donbas region to Russia, including the 14.5 per cent Ukraine currently holds. Ukraine also would be required to cut the size of its armed forces by half and it would not be allowed to possess long-range weapons, a possibility canvassed by Mr Trump in October when he floated the idea of supplying Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine. He also cancelled a planned second summit with Putin last month, saying it would be a waste because the Kremlin had not signalled flexibility on its demands.

The draft – reportedly drawn up by Mr Rubio, Mr Witkoff and Mr Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, in consultation with Kremlin confidant Kirill Dmitriev – envisages a rollback of US military assistance. Kyiv would not be allowed foreign peacekeeping troops on its soil or to join NATO for the foreseeable future. Russia would be freed from Western sanctions and rejoin the G7.

After producing a good peace plan for Gaza based on sound morality, the disappointing draft for a Russia-Ukraine deal has caused deep dismay in Europe for its proposed betrayal of a democratic country that was invaded illegally, and for strengthening Russia’s position. Tensions are running high. Polish officials have accused Russian security services of being behind an explosion on its rail network a week ago that almost caused a packed commuter train to careen off its tracks. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said the blast was a major escalation of the “shadow war” that European officials said Moscow was waging against infrastructure and civilian and military facilities. Against that background, proposed appeasement, as envisaged in the draft peace plan, must not be allowed to stand. Have its architects forgotten Munich in 1938?