What just happened in the island state? A perfect storm of national and local factors has wiped the Liberals from the map of Tasmania.
Labor ran a superior campaign from the start, carefully choosing the right candidates for the times – and for each electorate, taking risks and twisting arms to do so.
In the more conservative regional northwest seat of Braddon, senior party figures persuaded Senator Anne Urquhart to try her luck switching to the lower house.
The well-known, well-liked and fiercely pro-industry workers’ champion was instrumental in then persuading Anthony Albanese that salmon jobs in the electorate’s Macquarie Harbour must be protected at all costs.
Labor fancied its chances in Braddon from the get go, primarily due to the retirement of popular sitting Liberal Gavin Pearce.
His replacement as Liberal candidate, defence contractor Mal Hingston, failed to ignite the electorate and caused consternation even within the party. Many Liberals wanted high-achieving rural identity Belle Binder preselected instead.
In Lyons, federal Labor figures again intervened, effectively pushing aside sitting MP Brian Mitchell – who had won the sprawling central and eastern seat three times but with dwindling margins.
His replacement as Labor candidate, former state Labor leader Rebecca White, had taken the party to three consecutive state election losses. However, she remained popular in her state electorate of Lyons, which mirrors the federal seat of the same name.
The Liberal candidate, Susie Bower, had been campaigning in Lyons for years and was likely on track to take the seat until White entered the fray.
In Launceston-based Bass, Labor was up against popular maverick Liberal moderate and sitting MP Bridget Archer. Again, it chose her opponent well – an articulate, young teacher in Jess Teesdale.
While Teesdale faltered – temporarily flouting party policy on native forestry – she ran an engaging campaign, assisted – like Urquhart and White – by significant party resources and an army of red-shirted volunteers.
Albanese marked Teesdale’s bid for Bass as key from the start, launching Labor’s key Medicare bulk-billing policy in the electorate and, along with Braddon, returning frequently during the campaign.
Labor tackled Archer’s popularity head-on, telling voters “you might like her but if you vote for her you’ll get Dutton”. The fickle, centrist voters of Bass took the message to heart.
Dutton and his initial perceived embrace of Trumpian hardman politics was a turn off in Tasmania, as elsewhere.
On many issues he simply did not “speak Tasmanian”. On energy, there was consternation if not hostility to his nuclear policy, in a state already fuelled by renewables and where both major parties are fully behind a wind rush, underpinned by the Marinus Link interconnector.
Labor’s Medicare focus was a winner in Tasmania, which has some of the nation’s lowest bulk-billing rates and most severe shortages of GPs and specialists.
Dutton was not assisted by a deeply unpopular state Liberal minority government, on the nose over the Hobart AFL stadium, bungled ferry infrastructure, failing services and freefalling state debt.
The Coalition’s rejection of Labor’s tax cuts also hurt in Tasmania more than most places, given the state’s significantly lower average incomes. When you’re struggling, any cash is welcome, however small the amount.
In southern Franklin, sitting Labor MP Julie Collins fought off a challenge from anti-salmon independent Peter George; even increasing her primary vote. Only in Clark did independent Andrew Wilkie spoil the red tide, consolidating his stranglehold on the Hobart-based seat.
In the past, Tasmania has been seen by many on the left as a “natural Labor state” and other outcomes as temporary aberrations. After Saturday night, it’s hard not to regard them as right, at least for the foreseeable.
The state Labor opposition will take heart, particularly from the stellar swings in Bass and Braddon.
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