Election 2025: Labor ahead in key Tasmanian battleground but Coalition fuel policy a winner, polls say

A parachuted-in candidate will save Labor in one of the nation’s most marginal seats, polling suggests, but the Coalition wins points on fuel tax, and Jacqui Lambie inflames the salmon wars.

Anthony Albanese with Lyons candidate Rebecca White. Picture: Nikki Davis-Jones

You can now listen to The Australian's articles. Give us your feedback.

You can now listen to The Australian's articles.

Labor is on track to hold one of the nation’s most marginal seats but its tax cuts have fallen flat in another battleground electorate in Tasmania, polling shows.

Polling in the sprawling, rural and urban fringe seat of Lyons suggests Labor’s parachuting in of former state leader Rebecca White to replace MP Brian Mitchell may pay off.

A UComms poll, conducted on April 1-2, shows Ms White defending a 0.9 per cent margin against Liberal challenger Susie Bower and holding the seat 51 to 49 per cent on a two-party-preferred basis.

The poll, commissioned by the Australian Forest Products Association, also suggests strong voter backing for both ongoing native forest logging and boosted plantation forestry.

Separate polling, by Freshwater Strategy for the Liberal Party, in marginal Liberal-held Braddon, in Tasmania’s northwest, suggests Labor’s tax cuts are failing to excite voters. That poll, also from April 1-2, shows far greater support for the Coalition’s one-year cut to fuel excise – 71 per cent – than Labor’s $5-a-week tax cut – 41 per cent.

Mr Albanese in northern Tasmania, near Launceston, with Bass candidate Jess Teesdale. Picture: PMO

Tasmania is vital this election, with strategists believing at least three seats – northern Bass, Braddon and Lyons – are in play.

Much of the debate has focused on key industries, including forestry and salmon farming.

In Bass, Labor candidate Jess Teesdale last week quickly walked back from comments backing an end to native forest logging.

The UComms Lyons polling shows more than 81 per cent of voters in that electorate back the continuation of a “sustainable native timber industry”. More than 90 per cent back a Coalition policy to ensure timber products are labelled with the country of origin, while more 74 per cent support policies to strengthen local wood production.

The Braddon tax policy polling has boosted Coalition hopes of retaining Bass and Braddon. “Tasmanians are burning under Labor’s cost-of-living pressures. They want action now – not 70c a day in 15 months’ time, and this research vindicates our position,” a Coalition source said.

Both major parties on Wednesday backed the $1.46bn salmon industry after attacks from Senator Jacqui Lambie, who is up for re-election and running Senate candidates in South Australia, NSW and Queensland.

Jacqui Lambie and influencer Abbie Chatfield went toe-to-toe on a few big issues on this week’s podcast, including salmon farming.

Senator Lambie, speaking on a podcast with influencer Abbie Chatfield, urged a boycott of Tasmanian salmon and its removal from state waters.

“Don’t eat bloody Tasmanian salmon,” she said in response to Chatfield questioning whether a boycott was in order, over concerns about fish pen pollution.

“I’ll tell you what, (in) another couple of weeks, I reckon Woollies and Coles, they’re feeling the pressure down there as well, I know they’re about this far from pulling salmon … We don’t want that bloody salmon farming in Tasmania, they can piss off.”

Mr Albanese and Labor candidate Anne Urquhart visit Tassal salmon pens in Strahan, Tasmania. Picture: NewsWire

Coalition fisheries spokesman Jonno Duniam said Senator Lambie was “punching down on Tasmania and Tasmanian salmon workers in the pursuit of cheap votes in the mainland states for Senate candidates”.

State Labor leader Dean Winter said: “Jacqui Lambie’s smear campaign against Tasmanian salmon workers is nothing short of disgraceful.”