Election 2025: Liberal preferences may save Labor minister Julie Collins’ career

A preference decision by the Liberals may save a Labor minister from an independent endorsed by Bob Brown, after a dramatic series of events in a key Tasmanian seat.

The Greens’ Owen Fitzgerald has quit the race for Franklin over Kiwi citizenship. Picture: Nikki Davis-Jones

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The Liberals may save the political career of Labor Agriculture Minister Julie Collins, just as her independent challenger looked within sight of a shock upset.

Ms Collins holds the southern Tasmanian seat of Franklin with a margin of 13.7 per cent but is being targeted by independents from both ends of the political spectrum.

Anti-salmon independent Peter George received a significant boost on Wednesday when his Greens rival withdrew from the contest.

The 19-year-old Green, Owen Fitzgerald, quit the race after he was discovered to have disqualifying New Zealand citizenship.

It is expected the Greens will back Mr George and former leader Bob Brown immediately led the way.

“I’ve joined the campaign to elect independent Peter George, a community campaigner on fish farms…to save our forests, and to look after the lifestyle of the average voter in Franklin,” Dr Brown said.

Mr Fitzgerald with Greens senator Nick McKim. Mr Fitzgerald has withdrawn his candidacy over concerns around dual citizenship. Picture: Nikki Davis-Jones

Based on recent polling, Greens’ endorsement should see Mr George, a former ABC journalist backed by Climate 200, finish second, above the Liberal candidate.

That would normally give him a strong chance of a shock win but also on Wednesday the Liberals announced they would preference Labor ahead of him.

This decision should see Ms Collins retain the seat with the help of Liberal preferences, however Mr George’s supporters believe he remains a strong chance.

“If the Liberal Party is going to preference Labor over us that’s a clear sign that the salmon industry is dictating what Liberal voters should support,” Mr George told The Australian. “And the Liberal Party is doing what it’s told by their lobby masters.

“They are afraid of a growing crossbench. They would rather preference their opposition rather than gain an extra seat. That’s just the duopoly protecting their backs.”

The outcome may rest on how many Liberal voters follow their party’s how-to-vote cards to back Ms Collins over Mr George.

Independent candidate for Franklin Peter George. Picture: Nikki Davis-Jones

Agriculture Minister Julie Collins. Picture: Nikki Davis-Jones

Tasmanians are known for eclectic preference flows, with how to vote cards banned at state elections for multi-member electorates, and personal followings often key.

“How are Liberal voters going to respond to a direction from their party to vote for the opposition Labor Party?” Mr George said.

“Tasmanians are notorious for not voting for the party preferences, so I think we remain a real chance of ending up in preference battle with Julie Collins.”

The Liberals defended their decision. “While Labor are bad, Mr George and his anti-salmon views are worse, and we want to ensure that in any potential contest between the two that Mr George is not successful,” said Liberal senator Claire Chandler.

The Greens said Mr Fitzgerald renounced his British citizenship in 2024 and was not a registered citizen of NZ. However, legal advice had on Wednesday confirmed he was automatically a NZ citizen due to his father’s lineage.

Mr Fitzgerald – hailed by Dr Brown as “the face of the future” for the Greens – said his shock withdrawal was a “disappointing but temporary setback”. “I will be back,” he said.

Senator McKim called for the relevant constitutional section to be scrapped. “Section 44 … has no place in a multicultural liberal democracy like Australia in 2025,” he said. “It is a relic from a bygone era that predates the notion of Australian citizenship.”