Scott Morrison manages Libs with shrewdness of John Howard

Former prime minister John Howard, Prime Minister Scott Morrison and former prime minister Tony Abbott at the official opening of the 46th Federal Parliament. Picture: Kym Smith

This week marks the 25th anniversary of the election of John Howard’s government. This year could determine whether Scott Morrison becomes the most significant Liberal leader since Howard, and perhaps the third most successful after Robert Menzies and Howard, or if he joins the swelled ranks of disappointing prime ministers we have become accustomed to.

In the prime ministerial longevity league table, Morrison is on track to eclipse Kevin Rudd, Julia Gillard and Malcolm Turnbull by the end of this year. Indeed, if Morrison is in office by Christmas he will also surpass Edmund Barton, Gough Whitlam and John Gorton to become the 13th longest serving out of 30 prime ministers.

These are things prime ministers dream of. But before Morrison can think about etching himself into the history books, he faces a multitude of policy and political challenges that must be dealt with or at least neutralised if he is to win a fourth term for the Coalition later this year or next.

The most immediate is the allegations of sexual assault and the broader toxic culture in politics. This is a metastasising scandal. The government has not handled these complex and emotional matters well. They demand immediate empathy and decisive action. These issues will not simply go away.

Scott Morrison shares a laugh with John Howard on election night in 2019. Picture: Adam Taylor/PMO

The treatment of Brittany Higgins, who alleges she was raped in 2019 in the office of Linda Reynolds, the defence industry minister at the time, is shameful. Other women have come forward to claim they also were sexually assaulted by the same man. We still do not know enough about who in the government knew what and when, and the actions they did or did not take.

The historical rape allegations concerning a current Liberal cabinet minister (1988) and a Labor shadow minister (1986) — who are widely known in political and media circles — plunge both sides of politics into a deeper crisis. These claims, which may or may not be true, are being weaponised for political purposes.

This does not mean they should be discounted or ignored but it underscores the difficulty for Morrison. In the case of the cabinet minister, no police investigation can take place because the woman tragically committed suicide. In the case of the shadow minister, police investigated it and did not proceed with charges. Nevertheless, voters expect the Prime Minister to lead on these issues.

If this were not enough, Morrison also must deal with the ongoing pandemic and oversee one of the largest logistical operations in peacetime: the vaccine rollout. He also must manage the economic recovery, which is stronger than many expected but nevertheless is the most challenging since the 1930s Depression.

Internationally, Morrison must work to establish an effective relationship with our most important ally, the US, led by a new President in Joe Biden. He also must work to re-establish an effective relationship with our most important economic partner, China, led by authoritarian President Xi Jinping. And he will need to step up Australia’s efforts to combat climate change or be branded a global pariah by fellow conservative leaders such as Boris Johnson in Britain.

Morrison, like Howard, is routinely underestimated by his opponents and much of the media. Tanya Plibersek said recently that she neither likes nor respects Morrison. This reflects the Labor view that Morrison is unworthy of the prime ministership and was lucky to win the 2019 federal election. Labor said the same about Howard and lost four elections in a row. The reality is that Morrison remains popular — more so than Howard — and has a leadership edge over Anthony Albanese. Morrison is not an ideologue but a supreme pragmatist. He man­ages the Liberal Party just as shrewdly as Howard did. While he must navigate the parliament without a working majority because of the treacherous resignation of Craig Kelly, the Liberal Party is better off without the renegade MP in its ranks.

Former prime ministers of Australia (L-R), Malcolm Fraser, Julia Gillard, Bob Hawke, Tony Abbott, John Howard, Kevin Rudd and Paul Keating assemble for a photograh at the completion of the memorial service for Gough Whitlam in 2014.

If Morrison leads the Coalition to an election victory this year or next, and serves out most of the new term, he will have served longer in the top job than John Curtin, Paul Keating, Ben Chifley, Andrew Fisher and Alfred Deakin. This will put Morrison among the top 10 prime ministers for time in office, at No 8. A third election victory is needed to climb further.

There is another political record within Morrison’s grasp: winning two elections in a row. There have been eight other Liberal prime ministers but only three have won more than one election. Two election victories would rank Morrison alongside Menzies, Malcolm Fraser and Howard as dual Liberal election winners.

The most significant political prize would be to leave office at a time of his own choosing. No prime minister has done this since Menzies. I asked Morrison about this in October 2019. Not surprisingly, he demurred. “Those questions are very premature,” he said. “They are not things that are at all focused in my mind. I have one focus and that’s Australia’s national interest.”

But Morrison is such a political animal that he surely must have thought about this. Another election victory would give him this opportunity. He could reach five years as prime minister, the eighth longest serving overall, and depart undefeated in 2023 or 2024. It is a tantalising possibility. Every Liberal leader dreams of emulating Menzies.

But none of this will matter if, as Morrison told me, he is not focused on Australia’s national interest. He has plenty to do. It is ludicrous to criticise the government for not having an ambitious reform agenda given the plethora of crises it has to manage domestically and internationally. But, in the end, the Prime Minister must lead and that is the biggest challenge of all right now.