Quick Trump recovery from Covid-19 could change election narrative again

Joe Biden acknowledges journalists as he enters a venue in Wilmington, Delaware for a live video 'town hall' campaign event. Picture: Getty Images

In the past few days US politics has been turned on its head. A single event such as the death of a Supreme Court justice, a shambolic national debate, or a vulnerable candidate falling ill would shake the foundations of any campaign. Those events combined and more have made this election year a black swan event.

The black swans metaphor was born out of the observations of 2nd-century Roman poet Decimus Juvius Juvenalis that the birds were so rare they were presumed not to exist. That even the most ambitious Hollywood producers, who have made a film about every possible White House twist and turn, never came up with today’s reality confirms that we have indeed stumbled across the elusive black swan.

Until midnight last Thursday I thought that unless an earth-shattering event occurred before November 3, then Joe Biden would win. With only 2 per cent of Americans infected by the coronavirus (and 97 per cent of them recovering), what are the chances the world’s most heavily protected person would fall victim? Let alone just weeks out from the election.

It’s a political negative for Donald Trump. He has simply had too many different positions on the medical, economic and social implications of the virus. He amused and then confused Americans with his hourly updates. Often his guidance contradicted the experts. People grew tired of the infotainment.

He has learnt that even though he is immensely powerful and a master of the national narrative, he cannot control or spin a pandemic. He was at various times defiant, dismissive, accepting and authoritative. The pandemic has been beating him at every turn.

Meanwhile, Joe Biden has come across as empathetic, cautious and measured. He followed the science, wore a mask and kept a safe distance from people. He never contradicted or publicly doubted the medical experts.

As a result the centre-left owns the narrative that Trump is reckless and indifferent to this greatest of health challenges. The media wanting Biden to win has a 24-hour reminder in the corner of the television screen of the growing infections and deaths across the country. It’s depressing and is somehow portrayed as Trump’s fault.

But the President has the opportunity to change the election narrative. If Trump has a mild case of coronavirus and recovers quickly, then his spiel will be that he is physically and mentally stronger than his opponent – he is a proven fighter and he is so healthy and robust that he has beaten the dreaded virus. He will see out the next four years.

This was the narrative that Jair Bolsonaro deployed successfully. The President of Brazil has been dubbed the “Tropical Trump” because of his character and policies. He survived a stabbing during the winning election campaign. He survived the coronavirus he ridiculed and has surged in the polls, despite dreadful infection numbers across Brazil.

Boris Johnson’s personal popularity surged during his darkest days fighting the virus, but his party numbers didn’t. The British were concerned for their leader but their views of his party didn’t change.

The difference with Trump is that, like Bolsonaro, he is more politically significant than his party. A popular Trump will lift his party vote as he did in the 2016 election. The Republicans’ electoral success is more closely linked to Trump’s destiny than any normal presidential candidate.

If Trump has a serious case of coronavirus then there are so many potential outcomes no one will be able to confidently predict who will be sworn in as president until time runs out on January 20.

If he is incapacitated and resigns, or worse, then Mike Pence will be sworn in. It is then the responsibility of the Republican Party to formally nominate a candidate for the presidency – almost certainly Pence. By then it’s probably too late to change the ballot papers in many states.

If the Pence (Trump) ticket is elected then it becomes a procedural, legal mess. The states, and the electoral college that formally votes in the president, will be bogged down in confusing, uncharted territory. There is a process but you can be sure it will end up in the Supreme Court.

So suddenly the nomination of Judge Amy Coney Barrett to the nation’s highest court becomes even more significant. It seems the nomination ceremony for Barrett at the White House eight days ago was the superspreading event that has triggered the chaos. So far, six people are ill, including senators who sit on the key judiciary committee that will hold the nomination hearings.

Of course, Biden can still win. He is ahead in the polls in all states and across most issues. He is also free to campaign in key states. Within hours of two negative coronavirus tests Biden was on the hustings in Michigan. For months Trump mocked Biden for campaigning from the proverbial bunker in his home. Oh how the worm turns.

The Democrats have wisely tempered criticism of Trump. Hostilities haven’t ceased, despite Biden’s decision to pull aggressive attack ads that were dominating airwaves until Friday. Passive-aggressive narratives have started led by Nancy Pelosi, who mused that perhaps Trump’s brazen attitude to the virus will change.

Meanwhile, Trump campaign director Bill Stepien has also fallen victim to the virus. What’s left of his campaign team may be encouraging doctors to take away the President’s mobile phone. It is hard to see Trump as either a good patient or a muted candidate. He doesn’t like losing control of his destiny. But if he starts tweeting and running commentary then it will be game on and his inability to hit the hustings will be the equivalent of a prize fighter entering the ring with one arm tied behind his back.

With all this I wonder what Mary Milwaukee, our fictional swing voter, is thinking.

She is, first and foremost, a patriot. Her instinct is to wish the President well. And, like so many in America, under certain circumstances she is prepared to give someone a second chance. If Mary was close to voting early, the uncertainty about the candidates will cause her to wait and see how things pan out. If the President beats the virus before the election then it will remind Mary how tough he is. She was put off by the debate last week but she did think Trump was energetic and was fighting hard for her vote.

Americans like a strong, decisive president but they don’t like people being rude or disrespectful. It’s Trump’s achilles heel. Perhaps because of Trump’s recovery from the virus, Mary may forgive his behaviour and unkind tweets. She likes his policies – it’s why she voted for him four years ago.

Maybe Trump will come out of all this less aggressive, more humble. If so he will win back the Mary Milwaukees. It’s possible; after all, 2020 is the year for black swans.

Joe Hockey is a former federal treasurer and ambassador to the US. He is president of advisory firm Bondi Partners.