While its leader, Christopher Luxon, isn’t especially popular, his personal ratings are neck and neck with those of the incumbent PM Chris Hipkins. Luxon – a former CEO of Air New Zealand – is seen as a safe pair of hands at a time of profound economic uncertainty in New Zealand, and his party is regarded as the better economic manager courtesy of the performance of previous National Party PM John Key.
Having gotten used to New Zealand outperforming Australia economically, the country is currently trapped in a post-Covid hangover that led to a recession, both of which have been exacerbated by ineffective government spending and an associated build-up of national debt. These issues dominate the news domestically in ways we don’t notice from across the ditch. The number one issue at the October election is likely to be the economy, which favours a change of government.
When Labour was first elected in 2017, then leader Jacinda Ardern became a household name, not just at home but overseas too. She was the youngest female head of government anywhere in the world at 37 years of age. Breaking traditional conservative stereotypes, Ardern was unmarried and gave birth in her first term as prime minister. People warmly embraced the modernity of their new leader. Her popularity further soared as she skilfully managed domestic tragedies before also presiding over New Zealand when the pandemic struck, largely keeping Covid out of the country. Her re-election at the end of 2020 was emphatic, securing a majority in the country’s single-chamber parliament, which, courtesy of its unique electoral system, isn’t easy to do.
While Ardern’s rock star status internationally never waned from that moment, domestically the story was very different. Once the country’s most popular PM ever, her personal ratings collapsed as economic problems intensified. At the point of her departure she was seen as a significant drag on the government.
The handover to Hipkins – health minister during the pandemic – was professionally orchestrated and designed to turn around the government’s fortunes. However, the honeymoon attached to the leadership change was short-lived and the Labour polling soon returned to the dire state it had been in previously. New Zealanders want a return to the recent past when its economy was outperforming Australia’s, and unless something changes in the coming six weeks they look set to entrust the National Party with that task.
The government’s chances of re-election have been made harder courtesy of a series of ministerial scandals. All up, it has lost five ministers, including Ardern, in an election year. One was sacked for discussing confidential cabinet decisions with party donors. Another resigned when undeclared shareholdings with conflicts of interest were publicly revealed. In May the customs minister surprised colleagues by resigning and defecting to the Maori Party, without even informing the PM before doing so. Most recently the justice minister was forced to resign after being charged with careless driving and refusing to accompany a police officer. She also received an infringement notice after blowing over the legal limit. Hipkins isn’t exactly receiving the support he needs from his cabinet if he is to mount a political comeback.
New Zealand’s mixed member proportional representation electoral system makes it difficult for either major party to win with a majority. Indeed one of the design principles behind the system, introduced in 1993, is to reduce the chances of any one party controlling New Zealand’s unicameral parliament. Half the seats are elected as individual member constituencies, the other half are chosen via a party list. There are also a small number of seats carved out for indigenous representation. All elected MPs reside in the one chamber.
The Nationals will hope to win enough seats to govern in coalition with the libertarians, known as the ACT Party. But they may also need to rely on the support of the New Zealand First Party, led by Winston Peters. A triumvirate coalition in government would be suboptimal for Luxon, stifling the chances of legislating economic reforms capable of turning the recession around. This will be part of the opposition’s pitch for a decisive vote in its favour.
Even without Peters, the National Party’s reliance on the ACT Party to form government does give the Labour Party a political weapon it hopes can bridge the gap in the polls.
Hipkins and his team are painting the likely alliance a Luxon prime ministership would require as the most extreme right-wing coalition the country has seen in decades. The imagery is designed to scare voters into rejecting the spectre of economic reforms that might erode workers’ rights. There are also efforts afoot within Labour and the Greens to paint the religiously conservative Luxon as out of touch with modern New Zealand. While such negative politicking is part of Australian political culture, it is less common across the Tasman.
It will be interesting to see what impact a change of government in New Zealand might have on its relationship with Australia. Ardern was prepared to stand up to Scott Morrison on issues such as immigration and refugee policy settings. After his election last year, Anthony Albanese made a virtue of the centre-left political stripes he shared firstly with Ardern and now with Hipkins. A Luxon prime ministership could embrace economic policy settings the Australian government has been unprepared to consider. If that happens and New Zealand once again starts to outperform Australia economically, it could intensify pressure on Albanese and Treasurer Jim Chalmers to embark on more meaningful economic reforms to lift sagging productivity and economic growth – economic weaknesses spelt out in the recent Intergenerational Report.
Peter van Onselen is a professor of politics and public policy at the University of Western Australia and Griffith University.
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