NZ Labour crashes in polls, rival National and Act eye electoral victory

Support for Labour falls to its lowest in six years as polls show the National Party could comfortably form a coalition with smaller partner Act.

New Zealand Prime Minister Chris Hipkins speaks to reporters. Picture: Getty Images.

New Zealand’s governing Labour Party appears to be haemorrhaging support, falling to the danger zone of the 20s in the polls, its worst result in six years.

The latest political poll shows if an election was held today, the opposition National Party could form a coalition government with the smaller libertarian party Act party. It’s the third consecutive poll to show a potential National/Act victory – but the first to indicate a comfortable win for opposition leader Christopher Luxon.

The 1News Valerian poll shows Labour on 29 per cent, down four points from the last poll in July. National jumped two points to 37, with Act up one point to 13.

The results would give National 48 seats in Parliament and Act 17, giving the two parties 65 seats – easily enough for a majority in the 120-seat parliament.

By contrast, Labour would get just 37 seats; even combining with the Greens’ 15 seats and three seats for the radical Te Pati Maori, (The Maori Party), it would have just 55 seats, six below the 61 they’d need to form government.

National Party leader Christopher Luxon speaks in parliament. Picture: Getty Images.

National and Act have improved on their performance in the two previous polls which, while showing the parties could win in coalition, indicated a wafer thin majority.

The two leaders are almost neck and neck in preferred prime minister ratings, with Prime Minister Chris Hipkins at 21 per cent – dropping three points – and Mr Luxon on 20 per cent.

The polls also show maverick politician Winston Peters’ nationalist New Zealand First party on the up, with nearly enough numbers to enter parliament again, after being ousted by voters in the last general election. Depending on how National and Act perform at the October 14 general election, Mr Luxon might have to consider accommodating NZ First and the capricious Mr Peters.

New Zealand First leader Winston Peters speaks to supporters. Picture: Getty Images.

Mr Hipkins vowed to turn the results around in time for the election, telling 1News that Labour would go into October 14 as the “underdog”, but warning that with National and Act, NZ faced a “radical right wing government.”

“I acknowledge that it’s been a tough three years for New Zealand and we go into this campaign as the underdog,” Mr Hipkins said.

“We’re setting out a positive plan for the future. I’m very optimistic about New Zealand’s future.

“We’re up against what would be the most radical right wing government – National [and] ACT – that New Zealand’s seen since Roger Douglas and Ruth Richardson (finance ministers of Labour and National in the early 1980s who despite being on opposing sides of parliament, both supported neoliberal economic policies).

The latest blow for Labour comes after a difficult few months for the party, which has lost five ministers (including former prime minister Jacinda Ardern) this year amid a series of scandals. The most recent – and most damaging – was the resignation of Justice Minister Kiri Allan, who was charged in July over a road accident while she was over the legal drink-driving limit.

National and Mr Luxon – who doesn’t enjoy personal support among voters – have been slow to rise in the polls, despite Labour’s mounting travails.

Both Mr Luxon and Act leader David Seymour are also prone to gaffes: most recently, Mr Seymour said he dreamt of sending Guy Fawkes into the Ministry of Pacific Peoples, while Mr Luxon has been criticised for saying recently he’d accept Chinese money to pay for National’s infrastructure and road policies.

However the latest results suggest the country is swinging from left to right, with commentators pessimistic about Mr Hipkins’ chances in October.

Indeed, so negative has the political environment become for Labour that 1News compares the possibility of a Labour win with the very remote chance of a Taylor Swift gig in NZ.