Newspoll: Scott Morrison remains a certainty to win the next federal election

Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Leader of the Opposition Anthony Albanese.

Don’t let today’s Newspoll revealing an electoral dead-heat — 50 per cent a piece according to the two party numbers — fool you. Scott Morrison remains a certainty to win the next election, delivering the Coalition government a fourth term in office.

The PM is so confident that he is looking to bring the next election forward to capitalise on his dominance.

Don’t take my word for it. Government MPs and senators are supremely confident they can’t lose. Coalition strategists are too. Even Morrison’s own office is quick to point out just how electorally invincible they are.

The swagger in their collective steps will be there for all to see when parliament resumes tomorrow as will the confidence in the PM’s voice when he delivers a speech at the National Press Club this afternoon.

This certainty might be smug, but who can blame them after the way they were written off at the last election.

Notwithstanding failures in policy areas like Robodebt, or Morrison’s vicious and unwarranted attack on former Australia Post CEO Christine Holgate under parliamentary privilege, the PM knows the next election is his for the taking. Notwithstanding the sports rorts saga, his mishandling of the bushfires and dodgy land deals near Sydney’s second airport, voters won’t penalise the Coalition or the PM.

Why? Because Morrison knows that the political benefits from the pandemic are all his. Even if the states did the lions share of the heavy lifting. He expects to be rewarded for “pandemic management” as the national leader.

Normally a political party in government might look to avoid the appearance of hubris, but such superficialities aren’t a concern for Team Morrison. They have transcended such things. It is happy to own its confidence during this electoral cycle, as it watches Anthony Albanese fight off internal criticisms with his performance.

Polls like today’s aren’t an issue, so I’m told.

In normal circumstances the Coalition might face electoral pressure for its failure to reform. Indeed for the build up of debt and the lack of economic direction beyond surviving the pandemic by splashing the cash. But Australians can be forgiving during times of crisis. Even if the Coalition wasn’t quite so forgiving of Labor during the GFC.

Adding to Morrison’s confidence is his unrivalled dominance internally. While he may not have been able to save Kevin Andrews at preselection, and he does have to tolerate oddities in his parliamentary ranks like Craig Kelly – lest such MPs become even more maverick than they already are – none of that gets in the road of re-election, which is Morrison’s primary goal. And the Nationals are like a lap dog, making life as a Liberal leader even easier.

While some conservatives wonder what the PM really stands for, his desire to be re-elected for the simple sake of being re-elected is a conservative ambition. Staying in power keeps the Labor Party out of power. Away from the treasury benches, no less.

While not an especially inspiring reason for devoting a lifetime to politics, it serves Morrison and his conservatism just fine.

Peter van Onselen is a professor of politics and public policy at the University of Western Australia and Griffith University.