Premier problems to stall any rush to the ballot box

Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk called unsuccessfully last week for the Morrison government to provide more support to the tourism sector. Picture: Attila Csaszar

Despite Scott Morrison’s unquestionable success at managing the virus and the underperformance of his rival, the electoral contest between the major parties couldn’t be tighter.

So unless there is a compelling reason to do so, there will be no inclination for the Prime Minister to rush to an election in the second half of the year as is now the growing expectation.

 

The first Newspoll of the year, which puts both parties head to head at 50-50 may subdue the talk of early polls for a while.

Nevertheless, both leaders will take comfort from the numbers while also recognising neither can afford too many missteps.

Anthony Albanese, whose leadership is on the line, can take a compelling argument to his ­colleagues that on these numbers, and with the government’s grip on power limited by the slimmest of majorities, it would be madness to change jockeys halfway through the electoral race.

This will help him gloss over the other reality that his own ­personal approval ratings are now back into negative territory as some of his caucus colleagues contemplate which of them would make a more popular leader.

Morrison on the other hand will be buoyed by the fact he has maintained the longest run of ­approval ratings in the 60s of any leader since polling began in the 1980s.

And while the private research will be showing that the Coalition is in a better position than the published polls, he will use the tightness of the party contest to sharpen the minds of the ­colleagues.

In short, it will help him manage those Coalition MPs who may believe that the next election is ­already won.

Morrison will also doubtless take these numbers over the ones delivered to him this time last year.

The challenge for Morrison as he sets about making the ­electoral proposition is that he now has more than one ­opponent.

The elevation in the status of the state premiers during COVID-19 has given a voice to provincial Labor governments that didn’t exist before.

Local communities are more and more looking to state ­premiers as a focal point and a sense of direction, particularly when there is a gap in the market and Morrison isn’t filling that­ ­vacuum.

With the state premiers’ propensity to shut down borders at the sign of a ­sniffle, Morrison will be battling often seemingly whimsical decisions that could continue to carve potholes into the road to economic recovery.