Newspoll: Border blues hit Scott Morrison as Labor gains

The Coalition and Labor are locked in a dead-heat in the first Newspoll of a possible election year.

Scott Morrison has suffered a three-point fall in his approval ratings. Picture: Gary Ramage

The Coalition and Labor are locked in a dead-heat electoral fight as the major parties prepare for battle over the economic recovery and jobs ahead of a potential federal election later this year.

An exclusive Newspoll conducted for The Australian shows the electoral contest tightening over summer as Scott Morrison and Anthony Albanese both suffer falls in their approval ratings.

Anthony Albanese, facing unrest from a divided Labor caucus, has narrowed the two-party-preferred contest from 51-49 to 50-50. Picture: Gary Ramage

Popular support for the ­Coalition has fallen a point to 42 per cent, with Labor maintaining a primary vote of 36 per cent.

This has resulted in the government losing the electoral advantage it enjoyed over the opposition in November, with the two-party-preferred contest narrowing from 51-49 to 50-50.

With parliament returning on Tuesday from the long summer break, the first Newspoll for 2021 suggests voters may be venting a broader frustration over Christmas border closures and the disruptions to holiday plans imposed by premiers.

Despite the federal government being powerless to intervene, the Prime Minister suffered a three-point fall in his approval ratings to 63 per cent and a corresponding rise in disapproval to 33 per cent.

While maintaining an unbroken 12-month record of popularity and approval ratings in the 60s, the last time Mr Morrison suffered a similar fall in satisfaction was during the height of the Victorian lockdown of last August.

The Opposition Leader, facing unrest from a divided Labor caucus, has been handed a similar assessment on his performance from voters with his approval ratings falling back into negative territory for the first time since early October.

Mr Albanese has been forced to fend off mounting pressure on his leadership over the past fortnight, and public criticism from several frontbench colleagues.

The Newspoll shows his satisfaction rating falling three points to 41 per cent amid a two-point rise to 43 per cent for those unimpressed with his performance.

Other issues have emerged in the final weeks of January that have played out on the political stage, including a polarising debate over Australia Day, foreign policy arguments over Donald Trump and the divisions between Nationals and Liberal MPs over energy policy and coal.

However, MPs on both sides of politics concede that the summer lockdowns in Sydney and Brisbane and Victoria border closures imposed by state premiers was likely to have fed into a broader anger that has fed into the federal sphere.

Mr Morrison, while maintaining a strong lead as the preferred prime minister, fell three points to 57 per cent while Mr Albanese rose a point to 29 per cent. This was largely in line with where the leaders’ ratings were in October last year.

Coalition MPs will be concerned that despite the leadership dramas around Mr Albanese, popular support for the Liberals and Nationals has fallen. At 42 per cent, while still above the 2019 election result, it is the lowest it has been since ­August last year.

At the same time, support for Pauline Hanson’s One Nation and other minor parties, which represent a large number of disaffected voters, has risen.

PHON has recorded a one-point rise to 3 per cent nationally while support for other has risen from 8 per cent to 9 per cent. This category represented 11.8 per cent of the vote at the 2019 poll.

The Greens, which peaked at 12 per cent in September last year when Labor was as low as 34 per cent, has fallen back a point since the last poll to 10 per cent.