Newspoll: Danger signs for Labor but the Coalition is failing to capitalise

Labor is entering dangerous territory with a federal election to be held in less than nine months. It is bleeding votes to the Greens on the left and failing to make ground in the middle where it matters.

It is hard to see how it can hold on to majority government from here unless Anthony Albanese can arrest the government’s political drift.

And there is no sign of this.

The question now becomes not only one of whether there is a hung parliament but how ugly that hung parliament might be.

A combination of Greens and teal independents determining the balance of power is what’s on offer.

But with the relationship between the Greens and Labor having broken down at a functional level, the consequences for stability of government and reform amid a faltering economy and untamed inflation would be profound if this trend is realised.

Voters seem unfazed by the prospect. They are punishing Labor for policy failure and political mismanagement but offering no reward to the Coalition.

The Liberal/Nationals primary vote remains stuck below 40 per cent.

Even a minority Coalition government is beyond reach at these levels of support, with the possibility of a majority Coalition government becoming less realistic as the election draws closer.

The combined primary vote for the major parties remains below 70 per cent, which at the last election was historically low. This represents a fundamental failure of both Labor and the Coalition to address even the most basic demands of the electorate.

Peter Dutton is hampered by two problems that he shares with Albanese.

Both leaders remain firmly in negative territory. Neither is well regarded.

Voters are also deeply sceptical, having no confidence in the ability of any government – Labor or Coalition – to solve the current inflation and broader economic challenges.

Albanese’s economic plan has been rejected by the electorate. The Liberal leader is largely without one.

It’s no surprise that despite Labor’s primary vote now at 31 per cent, the two-party-preferred contest remains unchanged now, as for the past two months at 50/50.

Dutton appears to be still wedded to a strategy built on the theory that governments get kicked out rather than opposition parties are popularly elected. This will not be enough when the Coalition is so far behind on the seat count.

Neither side has grasped the significance of the primary problem.

This has been illuminated dramatically in the latest Newspoll survey, which has confirmed that the single issue defining the cost-of-living equation is the cost of housing.

It has emerged as the most dominant concern for a majority of voters under the age of 65.

This in itself should not be surprising. What is startling is just how dominant it is.

Housing rated 40 per cent against groceries at 25 per cent and energy bills at 18 per cent.

However, in the younger demographic, the numbers are more dramatic – 59 per cent for 18 to 34-year-olds and 52 per cent for 35 to 50-year-olds.

Two demographics, deeply concerned about the cost of housing, split between younger renters and families with mortgages.

Albanese’s new narrative on housing, having failed to deliver on its election pledge, is that Labor has an answer but is being blocked by the Greens and the Coalition.

This is an argument lost in the beltway, but it explains why the Greens’ vote has improved. Their policy offers may be absurd but they are talking directly to Labor constituencies.

While housing presents a significant political opportunity for Dutton, it is one that the Liberal leader has so far failed to grasp.

If he is frustrated at why the Coalition can’t break through the 50-50 ceiling in Newspoll, this may explain why.