Newspoll: Minority rule feared as Coalition rises and Labor falls

A majority of voters expect a hung parliament at the next federal election, as Labor’s primary vote falls and the Coalition increases its primary vote lead.

A majority of voters expect a hung parliament at the next federal election, as Labor’s primary vote falls to 32 per cent amid the cost-of-living squeeze and the Coalition increases its primary vote lead to an equal post-election high.

The Coalition’s seven-point lead on first preferences is the ­widest gap between the two major parties since the fallout of the voice referendum loss, but not enough to put the Liberals and ­Nationals into an election-­winning position.

An exclusive Newspoll conducted for The Australian has Labor and the Coalition level at 50-50 on a two-party-preferred basis.

It comes as parliament prepares to resume on Monday following the winter break, with the political contest tightening and Labor under increased scrutiny over cost-of-living and inflation pressures.

This is the third time the two parties have been tied since May 2022 and strengthens the odds of a hung parliament should the result be repeated at a general election.

A majority of voters, 57 per cent, now believe a minority Labor or minority Coalition government is the most likely outcome.

More troubling for the Albanese government is that only 22 per cent of voters expect Labor will do well enough at the election to retain majority government.

The most likely outcome ­according to 33 per cent of respondents was a minority Labor government formed with minor parties or independents, with 24 per cent nominating a minority Coalition government.

Only 21 per cent believe the ­Coalition would be in a position to form a majority government.

The latest Newspoll results show a one-point increase in the Coalition’s primary vote of 39 per cent and a one point fall in Labor’s support. Labor’s lowest primary vote since the election was 31 per cent in the wake of the voice referendum and Monday’s poll signals continued electoral dissatisfaction in the government’s performance.

The results will give the government cause for concern, as Labor’s income tax cuts and ­energy bill relief, and last week’s announcement of a 15 per cent wage rise for childcare workers, appear to have done little to boost its stocks.

Support for Labor – at under a third of the electorate – is now below its May 2022 election result and would suggest there is little prospect of Anthony Albanese calling an early election for this year.

The Greens primary vote fell a point to 12 per cent, with other minor parties and independents lifting a point to 11 per cent and Pauline Hanson’s One Nation party stable at 6 per cent.

The latest Newspoll follows a week in which the Reserve Bank of Australia, while holding interest rates at their current level, flagged that there would be little prospect of a rate cut within the next six months because of persistent inflation. The cost-of-living contest was further heightened after the government disputed the RBA’s ­assessment that government spend­ing was adding to a rise in public demand and making the task of bringing inflation back to within target range more difficult.

The Newspoll survey period also covered the lifting of the terrorism alert level from possible to probable, with social division over the Middle East conflict prompting ASIO to lift the threat assessment.

Voter satisfaction with both the Prime Minister and Peter Dutton also remained in negative territory, with the approval rating for Mr Albanese dropping a point to 43 per cent.

The Opposition Leader’s satisfaction rating also fell a point to 40 per cent.

Mr Albanese’s disapproval score remained higher than Mr Dutton’s at 51 compared with 50 per cent.

At a net approval level, Mr Albanese was minus eight compared with Mr Dutton on minus 10.

In the head-to-head contest, voters remained unchanged in their view, with Mr Albanese leading Mr Dutton by 46 per cent to 39 per cent. This is the closest margin on this measure since the last election. This survey was conducted between August 5 and August 9 with 1266 voters throughout Australia interviewed online.

If the current results were reflected at a general election and distributed across all seats on a uniform basis, which is unlikely, it would result in a minimum loss of four seats for Labor, tipping it into minority government.