Labor bleeds younger voters to Greens and loses Middle Australia

Greens leader Adam Bandt and Anthony Albanese. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Martin Ollman

Labor has a serious primary vote issue. Not that the Coalition doesn’t either.

But falling over the line into government in 2022 has not solved a longer-term problem for Labor that is becoming ever more apparent, if not worse.

This leads to one inescapable and obvious conclusion. Its reliance on left-wing preferences to form future governments is becoming ever more profound.

The possibility of a Muslim-based party campaigning against it complicates this fact even further. While Labor’s average primary vote is at 33 per cent, its highest level of primary support among any age group is 35 per cent.

And while this happens to be in the most important demographic – the 35 to 49-year-olds – that mostly closely aligned to what is loosely termed Middle Australia, it is nowhere near enough.

It’s second lowest level of support is at 31 per cent, and unsurprisingly among those aged between 50 and 64.

Where it becomes interesting is at the extremes. Labor’s primary vote support among the youngest group – the 18 to 34-year-olds – is now its lowest level of primary vote support at 30 per cent.

Labor is bleeding younger voters to the Greens on left-wing issues. The Newspoll analysis shows an almost evenly split contest now in this demographic between Labor, the Greens and the Coalition.

In the past three months, Labor has lost three points in primary vote in the 18-34-year-olds. The rental crisis, climate change and Gaza, one would assume, are the driving forces behind this decline for Labor.

So where once it relied on Greens’ preferences, it is now becoming completely dependent.

This complicates the love-hate relationship with the minority party further.

While Labor is locking in votes from the left, it will be able to win elections only on preferences.

The Coalition’s primary vote support is more varied across the age demographics. It is now only three points behind Labor among the younger voters at 27 per cent. And it is on equal support with Labor at 35 per cent among the 35-49-year-olds.

But it is at almost 40 per cent among the 50-64-year-olds and is at 50 per cent primary vote support among the over 65s.

The gender split is an equally vexed issue. While the Coalition is perceived as having a problem with women voters, the same can now be said of Labor among male voters.

For the first time, the Coalition is ahead of Labor on a two-party-preferred basis among men.

This is without losing any gain in advantage for Labor among women.

Thirdly, Labor is continuing to lose ground in the largest and most crucial state – NSW.

The Coalition, again for the first time since the election, is outpolling Labor on a two-party-preferred basis at 51-49. This is a trend Labor can ill-afford to have continue.

With the spectre of a Muslim party campaigning in western Sydney Labor seats, and now a community-based independent network being established by popular Fairfield mayor Frank Carbone that is intent on doing the same, there is little wriggle room for Labor to make mistakes.

What this all means is that while the Coalition has a mountain to climb to become competitive, the likelihood of Labor avoiding minority government at the next election is becoming ever more remote.