Monday’s Newspoll – which showed a tightening of the two party and primary votes for the major parties – it likely nothing more than a mirage for federal Labor. Giving the opposition false hope.
Yes, it’s a reflection of the federal government’s botched handling of the aged care crisis during COVID-19. But it only highlights a moment in time, nothing more. That is, a brief dip in government support which can be easily corrected by a prime minister who knows how to spin, campaign and fight his way out of political difficulties.
Just like he did against Bill Shorten at the 2019 election.
For a start, polling day is still at least a year away. The earliest Scott Morrison is likely to seek re-endorsement from voters is the end of next year, but he doesn’t need to face the people until mid 2022.
Between now and then the aged care crisis will have come and gone, and mechanisms to ensure it doesn’t happen again will likely have already been implemented. Come polling day the main issue will be the economy, and no matter how it is travelling at that time, Team Morrison wins.
If the economy is on the up, that of course benefits the federal government, because it will claim the credit and warn voters not to put the gains at risk by electing Labor.
If, however, debt continues to balloon, unemployment is sky high and growth is non-existent come polling day, Team Morrison will simply say don’t risk Labor because they will make a bad situation even worse. And guess what? Because voters trust the Coalition more than Labor to manage the economy (as the polls consistently tell us) that pitch will work.
At least for one more election. It gets more tricky after that if the bad times are rolling on.
At the next election the PM will be able to make these arguments, most likely while also enjoying high personal numbers. The latest poll showing a tightening of the party votes still had Scott Morrison way ahead of Anthony Albanese as the better PM, and with strong satisfaction ratings to go with that.
And any problems still present in the economy come the next election will easily be blamed on mistakes made at the state level. Just as the Treasurer is doing now when it comes to Dan Andrews and the lockdown.
So much for ending the blame game, or indeed the concept that we are all in this together.
So with the next federal election in the bag for the Coalition, Labor needs to already start planning further beyond the horizon. What does it want to die on a hill fighting for? What issues can it realistically argue over and carry the day? Who should be in what key roles so the opposition can put its best foot forward? These are long term decisions requiring long term planning.
The risk of the polls tightening, or even Labor taking a lead in the months ahead, are obvious. It feeds assumptions about victory just like Labor’s mirage of dominance in the polls did ahead of the last election.
Peter van Onselen is a professor of politics and public policy at the University of Western Australia and Griffith University.
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