Coronavirus: Scott Morrison sweats on a good Friday before national cabinet splinters

Scott Morrison chairs a national cabinet meeting last month. Picture: Adam Taylor / PMO

Friday’s national cabinet is shaping as its most crucial meeting because it will have to offer planning for the national economic recovery, balance states’ rights and popular coronavirus border closures, counter the risk of parochial election campaigns, buttress Scott Morrison’s authority, regain its lost momentum and justify its continued existence.

All the inherent weaknesses of federation and prime ministerial power — papered over by the formation of the national cabinet and more than $300bn in commonwealth spending — have been laid bare by the resilience of the COVID-19 pandemic and the disastrous Victorian second wave.

Federal-state unity is starting to crack, parochial and populist border closures are threatening the national recovery, electioneering is creating static, decision-making is faltering as it switches from health precautions to economic recovery, extending state restrictions is causing fear and uncertainty and the Prime Minister’s dogged championship of the national cabinet is being undermined. Unless the national cabinet can produce the semblance of a consensus plan for the “road back” on Friday, it will bare its throat to all those who want it – or some of its parts – to fail and face a fatal, bloody strike.

This is much more than just an early end to a fledgling form of executive government, more than a loss of face for Morrison and return to the destructive bickering of the states: this is a threat to Australia’s future and a way out of our deepest social and economic hole since the Depression.

Formed just six months ago with the full and enthusiastic support of six state leaders, two territory chiefs and the PM, and formalised into the future with the same alacrity, the national cabinet has to become greater than the sum of its parts. It has to make realistic decisions on health restrictions, lockdowns and travel bans, as well as acting on the equally important task of economic recovery and the protection and creation of millions of jobs.

On Monday, Morrison began his pitch to premiers and territory chiefs to lift their eyes from the immediate health threat, having succeeded in suppressing coronavirus to a manageable level in comparison to the rest of the world, and address the longer-term, and equally vital, “road back” to economic recovery.

Morrison wants to take the heat out of the debate and seeks more engagement with the states, declaring there will be no challenge to states’ rights on border closures but calling for longer-term plans on lifting restrictions which aren’t just about September 1 but also “October 1, November 1, December 1 and January 1”.

“Our economy needs to continue on the road back and we need to continue to work together so we can open up the economy safely just as we were doing in May and June,” he told parliament – and the premiers. Belated and little as they may prove to be, Morrison welcomes Daniel Andrews’s undertaking to unveil at least a plan for easing Victoria’s draconian restrictions days after seeking a year-long extension of emergency powers and saying it was too early to talk about easing.

While Morrison still does not attack Andrews, Josh Frydenberg has accused the Victorian Labor leader of being heartless and also costing the national economy billions. Andrews has learnt from his frightening grab for emergency powers and sees the power of offering hope in the medium term.

Morrison also alerted Queensland’s Annastacia Palaszczuk and WA’s Mark McGowan that there wouldn’t be a fight over their closures but he preferred a negotiated settlement; realistic and based on health advice. The Queensland Premier, in the early days of national cabinet, talked of lifting border restrictions to an agreed timetable but on Monday threatened to defy attempts to force them to be lifted, buoyed by a Newspoll and NT election results.

This is the scale of the challenge facing all the leaders in national cabinet on Friday; how they respond will determine not just their fate but also the national economy’s survival.