Scott Morrison is unmoved by speculation of a federal election being called this year, December or otherwise, and especially unmoved when the predictions come from Labor.
Barring absolutely momentous unforeseen circumstances the Prime Minister has no intention of calling an election before 2022, probably in March-April but, possibly as late as May.
Speculation within Labor ranks that Morrison could go to the polls in December has its own internal motivation – keep Labor MPs thinking they could be going to an election within weeks to encourage unity and sandbag Anthony Albanese’s leadership going into final Parliamentary sittings and the Christmas break.
But there are two words Morrison can see for himself and Labor would do well to keep in mind – Justin Trudeau. The Canadian Prime Minister called an early election because he was well ahead in the polls and thought the public was happy with the “bumpy” vaccine rollout beginning to smooth out.
Trudeau was wrong, he has slumped in the election campaign, which was seen as cynical politics, and could be heading for defeat.
But Labor’s speculation about an early election is flawed for more than just not recognising the backlash against early polls but also in misreading the mood of the electorate.
People have not seen enough of the management of the pandemic to simply declare it over when vaccination thresholds are met, a point Labor seems now to concede will be reached and undercut all the predictions of failure.
People will want to see more evidence of successful living with Covid-19 and economic resilience.
Morrison will be able to go to a poll without another budget but he can’t go on a punt that economic forecasts of recovery will be taken at face value.
The national mood is shifting on a weekly basis, the pandemic is still moving, the economy is mixed, the Premiers still playing politics and all the other issues that govern elections, including national security, are yet to come to the fore.
Albanese is in front in the latest Newspoll with Labor’s 40 per cent primary vote support to the Coalition’s 36 per cent and Morrison leads a minority government which has to win seats just to hold government for a fourth term.
Morrison’s not about to rush to the polls with so much uncertainty – leaders call polls when they think they can win or they run out of choices – and certainly not to help Labor which is in front and will suffer a loss of momentum and heart if the lead is lost as the real election approaches.
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