Pandemic good news will guide Scott Morrison on choice of election date

Scott Morrison in Canberra on Monday. Picture: Gary Ramage

Senior Labor figures are preparing for a December election when ­vaccine targets are achieved and before spikes in Covid-19 deaths and hospitalisations emerge.  Opposition MPs believe an early election will be called to avoid peaks in case numbers and deaths after the summer break as states and territories ease lockdowns and restrictions.

On current trajectories, all states and territories should have hit the 70 and 80 per cent fully-vaccinated thresholds by December.

Among Coalition strategists – some who are floating a March poll – an argument is being put for the election to coincide with hitting the government’s key performance indicators: vaccine targets and reinstating freedoms.

There is growing resistance to running full-term and holding an election in May. A May poll would extend uncertainties – new variants, vulnerabilities in health and aged-care systems and looming vaccine-supply pressures for booster jabs – that no government has been able to control during the pandemic.

Amid unprecedented Covid-19 spending and record debt levels, some government insiders feel ­little would be gained in replicating an early April budget.

All eyes now turn to the mid-year economic and fiscal outlook later this year, which will update forecasts and factor in the national reopening plan: resuming international travel, bringing in skilled migrants, tourists and international students under a more agile quarantine system and phasing-out lockdowns and border closures. MYEFO should provide a rosier future outlook if vaccine targets are met and states and territories stick with the plan.

There is no clear read on when Morrison will pull the election trigger as he deals with issues around the national plan, current outbreaks, new Covid-19 variants, vaccine supply, hesitancy and efficacy.

While the Coalition expects to see shifts in polling in coming months on the back of the vaccine rollout and Morrison’s national plan reset, the Prime Minister will head to Yarralumla when he thinks he can win.

Labor feels it is in with a shot to win but understands the pathway to victory for either major party is tight.

The next election will be like no other, as priority issues of pre-­pandemic polls are turned on their head. The battle will be fought on three core agendas: health, the economy and national security. Both sides expect minor parties and independents could prove the difference after preferences.

Like a roulette wheel, the electoral fortunes for the Coalition and Labor in key states, including Western Australia, Victoria, NSW and Queensland, are unknown. National polling struggles to take into account swings and roundabouts in different states and electorates.

The rise of premiers during the pandemic has also skewed national polling, and Labor strategists ­realise opinion gauges are not a definitive read on electoral success.

Away from the Twitter bubble and its partisan bile, the majority of Australians make their minds up during an election campaign, often days out from polling day.

Labor is preparing to fight the Coalition on issues traditionally dominated by the Liberals and ­Nationals. They’ve laid the groundwork by dumping Bill Shorten’s unpopular policies, supporting tax cuts for middle- and high-income earners, and adopting a mainstream climate change approach.

Expect Anthony Albanese to run a Hawke-Keating inspired campaign, promising to modernise the economy, lift productivity, build a new sovereign manufacturing base and support a sensible transition to a net-zero emissions future.