Fast jobs rebound likely after Covid-19 lockdowns end, economists say

Employers in locked-down states have sharply scaled back new hiring, but economists say there are signs of a swift resurgence.

Hiring has slowed, but employers appear willing to keep hiring with a view to the rebound once lockdowns end. Picture: Jeremy Piper

Employers in locked-down states sharply scaled back new hiring in August, even as new job advertisements remained buoyant across the rest of the country, with economists saying the data pointed towards a swift employment recovery once restrictions ended.

The number of new roles advertised through online jobs site Seek dropped 5.3 per cent last month, led by a 10-12 per cent plunge in NSW and the ACT, and a 6 per cent drop in Victoria.

Queensland employers also put up 5 per cent fewer ads on Seek in August than the previous month, with the sunshine state experiencing a snap lockdown between July 31 and August 8.

Elsewhere, the number of new job ads increased. Tasmania, the Northern Territory, and South Australia all recorded gains of well above 2 per cent, while the number of new jobs edged 0.3 per cent higher in Western Australia.

NAB director of economics Tapas Strickland said strong hiring outside east coast states “tells you there is very solid labour ­demand in areas of Australia that aren’t in lockdown”.

“It should give confidence that hiring activity will rebound sharply once restrictions ease,” Mr Strickland said.

Despite the monthly overall drop in the number of new job ads, they remained 25 per cent above pre-pandemic levels.

The hospitality and tourism industry showed the largest ­impact from lockdowns, with a 19 per cent monthly drop in new job ads in the sector.

Nationally, that was still 8.6 per cent above the number leading into the pandemic, but the number of new hospitality and tourism job ads in August in NSW and the ACT were only half the number recorded before the health crisis.

ANZ’s job ads series declined a further 2.5 per cent to about 196,000 – taking the fall to 3.7 per cent over the past two months – but there were no signs of a ­national collapse in hiring in the month of the likes witnessed in 2020. The number of vacancies also remained well above pre-pandemic levels of about 155,000.

ANZ senior economist Catherine Birch said the job ads numbers were a sign of enduring labour demand, although she also said it was “likely that job ads will decline further over coming months, and we expect sizeable employment losses in locked down areas”.

Both Mr Strickland and Ms Birch expected unemployment to move above 5 per cent in coming months, but that the labour market would recover quickly once health measures were removed.