America’s octogenarian President delivered a 67-minute State of the Union address last week.
Joe Biden did it with what the press called “high energy”, a synonym for lots of shouting. His address was punctuated by Democrats chanting “Four more years, four more years!”
Biden did what he had to do. He exceeded the low expectations many Americans had for his performance. He calmed – for the moment – Democratic bed-wetters concerned about his stamina, energy and ability to deliver a message.
Still, it is far from clear he changed voters’ fundamental concerns. At 81 he is too old. He has memory problems. He does lack stamina. And shouting or no, Americans know it.
Polls in the coming weeks are likely to show little or no positive impact of Biden’s State of the Union performance on his standing on the issues or with voters. The Democrat nervous Nellies may start hyperventilating again.
Some Democrats hope Biden’s delivery last Thursday (Friday AEDT) foreshadows a rip-roaring performance like the one that propelled president Harry Truman’s come-from-behind 1948 victory. I doubt it. The President won’t be able to rest at Camp David for several days before every big election appearance as he did for the State of the Union. It will be a long, frenetic campaign. Biden is unlikely to handle that pace and pressure well.
Even if the President can summon his inner Truman – who in 1948 was 17 years younger than Biden is now – and take a two-by-four to Donald Trump as Truman did to his opponent, Biden will find it a much harder task.
Truman’s surprise victory was possible only because he ran circles around the Republican candidate, New York governor Thomas E. Dewey. Dewey felt “all he had to do was refrain from making mistakes”, A.J. Baime observes in Dewey Defeats Truman: The 1948 Election and the Battle for America’s Soul (2000). In Truman’s Triumphs: The 1948 Election and the Making of Postwar America (2012), Andrew E. Busch argues that “staying above the fray” and pursing a “strategy of caution” were central to the Dewey campaign. The Republican focused on “minimising risk and avoiding sharp edges”, Zachary Karabell writes in The Last Campaign: How Harry Truman Won the 1948 Election (2000).
Trump is different in most every respect from Dewey 76 years ago. Trump is bold to the point of being reckless. The former president constantly breaks the rules of normal political discourse, relishes conflict and name calling, and is hyperactive and bombastic. He has an instinct for grabbing attention and energising his followers so fervently that he holds them in thrall.
While Dewey tried turning his back on Truman’s assaults, Trump won’t ignore Biden if he comes at him.
Moreover, while Biden’s State of the Union address provided a momentary appearance of momentum, he undermined his most critical asset – his position as President of the United States. Biden needlessly insulted, baited and offended important political players at a critical moment for America, diminishing himself as he belittled them.
Some subtle political comments are expected in an election-year State of the Union.
But did Biden need to open his discussion of aid to Ukraine by attacking Trump? How hard was it to raise the issue of abortion without a partisan assault on the Supreme Court?
Did he need to pummell Trump over Covid, saying he’d “failed the most basic presidential duty”, “the duty to care”? This was especially small since Trump’s Operation Warp Speed program produced Covid vaccines in record time, making possible the success for which Biden credits himself.
Biden could have dealt with these subjects in ways that made him stronger and bigger, more presidential and therefore more appealing than Trump. Instead, he lowered himself with shortsighted and counterproductive blows. These provided a political sugar high but no long-term electoral advantage. They were petty and made him look the same. But Biden did manage to shout for most of an hour. Perhaps he thought that was important.
Trump is an inviting target. But he’s more formidable than Democrats seem to think, with strengths that those who hate him find hard to see, more difficult to understand, and maybe impossible to overcome.
Trump is certainly in a better position than Biden right now. If Democrats hope to pull off in 2024 what Truman did in 1948, the party’s standard-bearer must keep upping his game.
One speech didn’t solve Biden’s problems. It simply drew attention away from them for a few moments.
The Wall Street Journal
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