This year will be only the second time a former president faces the man who defeated him four years before. The only other occasion was 1892, when Democrat Grover Cleveland challenged Republican president Benjamin Harrison. In a way, both 1892 and 2024 are contests between incumbents. But both Donald Trump and Joe Biden seem determined to erode the benefits that incumbency brings.
Trump’s team is correct that he’ll probably clinch the GOP nomination late this month. It’s also right to begin focusing on the general election. But the primaries should alert the team to a major problem for Trump: he still has work to do among Republicans.
In Iowa, 49 per cent of caucusgoers voted for candidates other than Trump. In the New Hampshire primary, 45.7 per cent went for another Republican. In South Carolina, 40.2 per cent voted against Trump, and in Michigan on Tuesday 31.9 per cent said no to him, according to the latest count.
Compare these with Biden’s performance: 96.2 per cent of South Carolina voters in the Democrat primary voted for him. He won New Hampshire as a write-in with 63.9 per cent and received 81.1 per cent in Michigan. Those are an incumbent’s numbers.
Even more worrisome for Team Trump should be that at least two in 10 Iowa and South Carolina voters said they won’t support Trump in November. Roughly three of 10 New Hampshire GOP primary voters said the same. If Republican defections from Trump later this year are anywhere close to those numbers nationwide, he’s cooked.
Trump may be unconcerned because he thinks, as he said when one stubborn Republican congressional leader finally endorsed him, “They always bend the knee”. But this is a democracy, not Game of Thrones. He must convince Republicans to go for him. They can stay home if he doesn’t.
Republicans are hardly unified. So it wasn’t useful for a key Trump lieutenant to ridicule Ron DeSantis after he endorsed Trump as a “sad little man” who will be remembered for “chicken fingers and pudding cups”. Or for the campaign to dismiss his remaining challenger, Nikki Haley, as “irrelevant and not newsworthy”.https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/nikki-haley-needs-a-miracle-to-win-but-her-decision-to-stay-in-the-presidential-race-is-strategic/news-story/aa3f480b429ecb51a4411dd18de3ed33
It’s particularly unhelpful for Trump to threaten that anyone who contributes to “Birdbrain” Haley’s campaign will be “permanently barred from the MAGA camp”. Some Haley supporters could take that as an invitation to walk away from Trump, never to return. Who could blame them?
In politics, for every action there’s an opposite reaction, often weaker and sometimes stronger. Team Trump’s jeering may be irritating enough to provoke the latter. It won’t be enough to get her the nomination, but Haley still has real Republican support. Trump has work to do to draw her supporters into his column in November.
A calming and unifying tone doesn’t fit Trump’s style. But he can cut down on his belittling of other Republicans. He should act like a leader rather than a small-time character assassin. Or at least aim his shots at the other party.
While Biden’s primary path has been much easier, there’s trouble in the returns for him, too. In 2020, 539,263 Democrats turned out for South Carolina’s primary but only 131,472 did this year. In New Hampshire, 298,377 Democrats voted in 2020 but just 123,996 this year. In Michigan 1,587,679 Democrats showed up in 2020 but 767,836 this year. Certainly some of the drop-off is because there’s no real Democrat nomination fight. But it could also be because of a lack of enthusiasm for Biden. Many Democrats believe he’s too old, weak and uninspiring. These include groups that were overwhelmingly for him in 2020: younger, black and Hispanics.
Biden’s public appearances reinforce the perception that he isn’t up to the job and make it hard for Democrats to get enthused. While answering questions about the border and a Gaza ceasefire on Tuesday, Biden was licking a giant ice cream cone. He looked less like the commander in chief than a great-grandfather indulging his sweet tooth while giving the kids an after-school treat. Stagecraft is only one of Biden’s shortcomings, and hardly the most serious. But this kind of thing adds up.
Both men are incumbents, with all the potential strengths that implies. But one keeps disrespecting – possibly alienating – important elements of his party while the other keeps highlighting his own weaknesses of style and substance.
The Wall Street Journal
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