How the US election and Kamala Harris influenced Israel’s move to take out Hezbollah chief Nasrallah
The death of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah represents an exclamation mark in the grim grammar of Middle East terrorism and conflict.
Hezbollah, proscribed as an illegal terrorist organisation under Australian and American law, is the best-funded and one of the deadliest terror outfits in the world.
US President Joe Biden, whatever his general disagreements with Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu, nonetheless said, sombrely, that Nasrallah’s death brought “a measure of justice for his many victims, including thousands of Americans, Israelis and Lebanese civilians”.
Biden, while calling for a ceasefire, nonetheless reiterated America’s support for Israel’s right to defend itself against Hezbollah.
Kamala Harris issued her own statement echoing Biden’s support for Israel.
This is perhaps a key to understanding Israel’s timing in its operation against Hezbollah.
There is every chance Harris will become president. She has nowhere near the commitment to Israel, the feel for Israel, that Biden has, for all Biden’s dithering and weaknesses.
Israel wants to change the structure of the security environment it faces and it wants Harris to be locked in to supporting those changes, while she is still subject to direction from Biden and the discipline of a tight election campaign.
Israel is determined to smash the ring of fire Iran has surrounded it with, through proxies such as Hezbollah and Hamas.
Israel is also determined to restore the force of its deterrent posture.
In order to work, deterrence has to live vividly in the minds of your enemies.
Deterrence prevents war.
American deterrence has crumbled badly under Biden.
In response to Israel’s actions the Houthis in Yemen have once again attacked US shipping in the Red Sea.
Despite Biden’s reflexive talk about not escalating, the US should hit the Houthis hard, with devastating force, every time they do this.
It’s not only the Israelis who need to restore the credibility of their deterrence. As for Australia, don’t get me started.
The sheer technical mastery of Israel’s operations against Hezbollah will hugely reinforce the mystique of its power.
From exploding pagers and phones to locating and destroying every member of the Hezbollah leadership, Israel has demonstrated both its technological mastery and its deep human intelligence penetration of Hezbollah, just as it demonstrated this with Iran earlier.
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